Bitcoin bearish break testing $45k support zone and 38.2% Fib

Bitcoin made a bearish breakout rather than a bullish break as we expected. 

This shows how strong and important the 21 ema zone really is: price action was unable to break above the bearishly angled 21 emas. Let’s review the new situation.

Price charts and technical analysis

Our original analysis on Bitcoin (BTC/USD) favored a bullish break above the 21 ema zone but a bearish swing is already testing the previous bottom near $47k. 

1. Price action made an immediate bearish swing instead as it used the 21 emas as a resistance zone.

2. This means that the price action seems to be completing a bearish ABC (pink) pattern as we expected, just a little bit sooner. Also, the wave B is weaker than expected.

3. If our outlook is correct, then the ABC (pink) should complete a wave 4 (purple) pullback.

4. The wave 4 (purple) could already be completed (green arrows) or make one lower low to tag and hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A bounce confirms it (blue arrows).

5. The uptrend remains valid as long as price action stays above the 50% Fibonacci level. A break below places the uptrend on hold (orange button) and a deep retrace invalidate it (red button).

On the 4 hour chart, price action seems to be building a bearish ABC (pink) zigzag pattern with 5 waves (grey) in wave A (pink):

1. The current bullish bounce could be wave 4 (grey) in wave C (pink) as long as price action remains below the 21 ema zone.

2. A bullish breakout (green arrows) could invalidate the bearish wave 4-5 outlook and indicate an immediate uptrend.

3. A bearish breakout (orange arrows) could create one lower low to finish wave 4 (purple).

4. A bullish bounce after the lower low (blue arrow) could indicate the end of the retracement.

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The analysis has been done with the ecs.SWAT method and ebook.