Avalanche price could confirm a bullish reversal if this key level holds

• Avalanche price is up 5% in three days amid Cortina Upgrade-related hype.
• AVAX could soar 4% to tag the immediate resistance level at $17.77.
• A daily candlestick close below the 100-day EMA at $16.93 will invalidate the bullish thesis. 

Avalanche price (AVAX) has been trading horizontally since March 18, as the altcoin waited for the right catalysts to resume its uptrend. The altcoin has remained afloat, ramping upon the alt season and the Bitcoin (BTC) dominance that saw altcoins rallying. It appears the anticipated trigger has come in the form of the Cortina Upgrade, but the success or failure of the uptrend depends on whether AVAX will hold above a key level.  

Avalanche price could soar amid Cortina Upgrade-related hype

Avalanche price could soar around the news of the release of the Cortina Upgrade on Fuji. The event marks the latest version of AvalancheGo, which will be migrating the X-Chain to run Snowman++ consensus. Upon implementation, it would make the X-Chain compatible with Avalanche Warp Messaging and make it easier for exchanges to support the X-Chain.

Cortina Upgrade

In an official blog, Avalanche told the community that the pre-release code will be published on April 3, 2023, and the same will go live on April 6, 2023, at around 3 PM UTC. Once X-Chain is switched to Snowman++ consensus, the chain will work with Avalanche Warp Messaging. This will be value-adding to X-Chain as it will be able to seek support from different exchanges.

AvalancheGo, which has been lauded by community members, will execute the development. Its popularity comes as it promises lower gas fees and faster execution, both desirable to the community.

Users can upgrade their nodes by starting AvalancheGo v1.10.0, with recommendations to have a backup staking certificate or key. Notably, any node that will not be upgraded before the mainnet activation date will be signed offline. Others will also report them for lower uptime, a move that could impede future staking rewards.

Avalanche price must hold above this level to resume its uptrend

Avalanche price has been riding on the support provided by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $16.93 since March 18. The altcoin lost this level between March 27 and 28, but quickly recovered after a bounce from the $16.29 support level and extended above the 50-day EMA at $17.06.

At the time of writing, AVAX was auctioning at $17.16. An increase in buying pressure above this level could set the tone for Avalanche price to tag the $17.77 resistance level.

Further north, Avalanche price could tag the 200-day EMA at $19.20, before a neck up above the $19.74 resistance level. Above this barricade, AVAX would have a chance of reclaiming its February highs above the $20.00 psychological level. 

AVAX/USDT 1-day chart

Conversely, if seller momentum escalates, Avalanche price could quickly lose the immediate support due to the 50-day EMA then the 100-day EMA at $16.93. A daily candlestick close below this level would invalidate any hopes for an uptrend for the short term.

Below the 100-day EMA, Avalanche price could run down the cliff, first breaching the $16.29 support level before heading for the March 10 lows below $14.79. Such a move would denote a 14% drop from the current level. 

---