XAU/USD outlook: Gold price is consolidating under new record high, ahead FOMC Minutes

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

XAU/USD

Gold keeps firm tone and consolidating under new record high ($2531) posted on Tuesday, with third consecutive daily close above $2500 level, pointing to clear break.

The yellow metal holds in a steep multi-month uptrend and has registered gains of nearly 22% since the start of the year.

Strong migration into safety on Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over economic situation in the US and upcoming US Presidential Election, continued to lift gold price, which rose by almost $500 in seven months of 2024.

Technical picture is firmly bullish on daily chart and contributes to positive outlook, though some price adjustment cannot be ruled out on overbought conditions and fading bullish momentum on daily chart.

Markets widely expect dovish tones from FOMC minutes (due today) and Friday’s speech from Fed Chair Powell, which will also provide more details about the depth of rate cuts.

Limited dips are likely to mark positioning for fresh push higher, with solid supports at $2500/$2483 (psychological / former top) to ideally contain and offer better buying opportunities.

Caution on drop below rising 10DMA ($2473) which may generate an initial signal of stronger correction and expose lower pivots at $2439/32 (20DMA / Aug 15 higher low).

Res: 2531; 2564; 2600; 2614.
Sup: 2500; 2483; 2473; 2450.

Interested in XAU/USD technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 2565.68
2. R2 2548.71
3. R1 2531.34
PP 2514.37
1. S1 2497
2. S2 2480.03
3. S3 2462.66

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD seems fragile below 1.1700 as Middle East war boosts energy prices

The EUR/USD pair trades flat at around 1.1680 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, but broadly seems vulnerable, being close to its five-week low. The major currency pair is under pressure as surging oil prices due to the United States-Israel war with Iran have increased the risks of higher inflation for the Old Continent.

GBP/USD hovers around 1.3400 with bearish pressure intact

GBP/USD edges higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.3400 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bearish bias, as the pair trades within a descending channel pattern.

Gold sticks to gains above $5,350 amid sustained safe-haven demand; firmer USD caps gains

Gold sticks to its positive bias for the third straight day and trades above the $5,350 level heading into the European session on Tuesday. Concerns about a broader regional conflict in the Middle East continue to weigh on investors' sentiment and underpin demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion.

Stellar risks deeper losses as derivatives metrics turn negative

Stellar is trading red below $0.16 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight recovery the previous day. Weakening derivatives data caps the recovery, while an unfavorable technical outlook projects a deeper correction for the XLM token in the upcoming days.

The market is not panicking it is repricing the probability distribution of Oil and time

At the end of the day, markets do not trade morality or geopolitics. They trade transmission channels. And the only channel that truly matters in this maelstrom runs through the price of energy and the time value of money.

Grass 20% bullish breakout defies broader market weakness

Grass (GRASS) is edging up above $0.30 at the time of writing on Monday. The token’s notable 20% intraday surge stands out amid heightened volatility in the broader crypto market.