Why SPY declined

S&P 500 decline about to happen as the premarket rebound was losing steam around 5,780, generating quick intraday profits for clients. The tight range breakout to the upside through NFPs aftermath became contested, yet the downswing similarly respected the proximity of the relatively tight preceding range in the 5,730s.

The greatest development though had been continued reappreciation of how many cuts we would see in 2024 still. I can‘t understate the yesterday shared importance of newly 16% odds of no Dec cut. Politely said, some sectors benefited more than others – and I develop these thoughts further in the premium sections as it didn‘t leave precious metals unaffected while crude oil very, very comfortably kept above $74 – and the rise in yields called since before Sep FOMC, will have consequences down the road.

Let‘s chek on the bond market moves yesterday (I hope you‘re familiar with the extensive Sunday analysis already - a quick note about China returning from holidays, we got some quick profit taking, but the reflationary trade isn't over there).