Another day and another highly anticipated money making opportunity. That’s one of the most lucrative trends of the current financial climate that we find ourselves in right now.
Following Fitch’s surprise move earlier this week to strip the United States of its triple A rating – traders have now turned their attention to the next big market-moving event brewing on the horizon: Friday’s U.S Employment Report.
There will be a huge focus on Friday’s data, especially with growing pressure piling on Federal Reserve to end their aggressive tightening cycle, much sooner than policymakers would prefer.
Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report could provide a crucial piece to the increasingly complicated puzzle that is the U.S economy and its long-anticipated slide into recession.
Economists expect that Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 200,000 in July, a number that would be the smallest gain since December 2020, while unemployment is projected to hold steady at 3.6%. Last month saw a gain of 209,000 and the year-to-date total is around 1.7 million.
While slower job growth might fit the narrative that the U.S economy is headed for a contraction, other critical macro-data, including GDP figures, productivity and consumer spending, recently have been surprisingly strong.
That could leave Friday’s payrolls number as a key arbiter for whether the economy is headed for a downturn and if the Federal Reserve needs to keep hiking interest rates to control inflation that is still running well above the central bank’s desired 2% target rate.
Expectations are running high that this will most likely be a report that has a little bit for everybody – whether your view is leaning towards a hard landing, soft landing or no landing at all, which ultimately opens the door to new and exciting opportunities ahead.
Wages also will be a huge focus. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% for the month and 4.2% from a year ago, which would be the lowest annual rise since June 2021.
Altogether, traders will be looking for the data to confirm that the economy is slowing enough for the Federal Reserve to ease up on its historic monetary policy tightening campaign and finally announce an end to their 17-month-long interest-rate hiking cycle, which commenced in March 2022.
It goes without saying that Friday’s U.S jobs report will either make the Fed's decision on future rate hikes much easier or much more difficult. As savvy traders know, regardless of whether the data meets, beats, or misses expectations – the outcome is guaranteed to be a license to print money, which traders will not want to miss out on!
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of your investments and income may go down as well as up. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent advice if necessary.
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EUR/USD breaks below 1.0400 due to renewed US-EU trade tensions
EUR/USD continues its decline for the third consecutive day, trading near 1.0390 during the early Friday. The pair weakens as the risk-sensitive Euro faces selling pressure amid heightened risk aversion following renewed US-EU trade tensions.
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Bitcoin price continues declining on Friday after falling more than 15% this week. Ethereum and Ripple followed BTC’s footsteps and declined by nearly 24% and 21%, respectively.
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GBP/USD holds below 1.2600 as US PCE inflation data looms
The GBP/USD pair extends its downside to near 1.2580 during the early European session on Friday. Tariff uncertainty from US President Donald Trump undermines the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar.
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Gold price remains depressed near two-week low amid modest USD strength
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February inflation: Sharp drop expected in France, stability in the rest of the Eurozone
Inflation has probably eased in February, particularly in France due to the marked cut in the regulated electricity price. However, this overall movement masks divergent trends. Although disinflation is becoming more widespread, prices continue to rise rapidly in services, in France as well as elsewhere in the Eurozone.
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