Phil Carr
The Gold & Silver Club
The most highly anticipated week of the year and quite possibly the most pivotal moment in political history is finally here!
This week will not only see the biggest macro trading event of the year – the U.S Presidential Election, but also the Federal Reserve and Bank of England’s latest interest rate decisions alongside – China widely expected to announce an extra $1.4 trillion in monetary stimulus to revive its fragile economy.
Taking front and centre stage this week will undoubtedly be the outcome of the 2024 U.S Presidential Election.
Historically, U.S Elections are known to be extraordinary macro trading events that are certain to move the Gold market significantly – largely due to political uncertainty and the potential for shifting economic policies.
There is no denying that the lead up to the 2024 U.S Presidential Election has been nothing short of eventful – marked by two assassination attempts, a candidate switch, divisive rhetoric and warnings about the fate of democracy.
And let’s not forget UK’s ruling Labour party, accused of “foreign interference” and illegal foreign campaign contributions to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ campaign.
Looking ahead, the big question now is: How will a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory shape the market narrative for the rest of the year and beyond?
Regardless of whoever wins the U.S Presidential Election on November 5 – the fact, that both candidates are proposing inflationary policies, guarantees to unleash one of the most bullish backdrops for Gold prices ahead, the world has ever seen!
According to data compiled by GSC Commodity Intelligence – the firm's analysts forecast that if Kamala Harris wins the presidency and implements her policies, she could add as much as $5.1 trillion to U.S debt, lifting the debt-to-GDP ratio to 137%.
On the flipside, however, should Donald Trump win with his agenda, he could add an estimated $6.4 trillion to U.S debt and increase the debt-to-GDP ratio to 142%.
Interestingly, there is a strong correlation between U.S debt and Gold prices. Conclusive evidence shows during the period U.S national debt has ballooned from $5 trillion to $35 trillion – Gold prices have risen by 10x since 2000. That's a staggering gain of over 826% since the beginning of the century.
But here's where things really start to get interesting. If history repeats itself, Gold prices could reach $5,000 an ounce when U.S debt hits the $70 trillion mark.
Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. The stars appear to be aligning for Gold, which suggests that this secular bull market is only just getting started!
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of your investments and income may go down as well as up. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent advice if necessary.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.