|

Week´s top three trades: USD/CHF

The USDCHF edged higher Friday, closing just shy of the November high.  Although the USDCHF can be expected to consolidate further to start the week, odds are now elevated for a test of the psychologically key 0.90 whole figure level ahead of the Xmas lull.  A higher December high/low versus the November high/low now appears likely, which if successful, further reinforces the major bottom trying to form since early 2024 (as can be seen easier on a 3 month or monthly chart on tradingview.com).  Although healthy profittaking may arrive as early as Monday with the US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI or Tuesday with the US retail sales, a resumption to the upside is likely by Wednesday with the US Federal Funds rate, FOMC statement and press conference, Thursday with the US GDP and unemployment claims or Friday with the US core PCE price index.  The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying  or consolidating recent gains.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter)

Author

Darren Chu, CFA

Darren Chu, CFA

Tradable Patterns

Darren Chu, CFA, ex-Intercontinental Exchange | NYSE Liffe, TMX Group, CMC Markets, is the founder of Tradable Patterns – a publisher of futures/FX technical analysis on Bloomberg, LSEG (Refinitiv) and Factset.

More from Darren Chu, CFA
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD off highs, back to 1.1850

EUR/USD loses some upside momentum, returning to the 1.1850 region amid humble losses. The pair’s slight decline comes against the backdrop of a marginal advance in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings.

GBP/USD advances to daily tops around 1.3650

GBP/USD now manages to pick up extra pace, clinching daily highs around 1.3650 and leaving behind three consecutive daily pullbacks on Friday. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the inconclusive price action of the Greenback, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborates with the uptick.

Gold surpasses $5,000/oz, daily highs

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s upside is also propped up by the lack of clear direction around the US Dollar post-US CPI release.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest 

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.