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Weekly outlook: US retail sales expected to decline in June

Amir Khedri Independent Analyst

Highlights for the next week:

1. Chinese GDP (Monday 15July 3:00am GMT)

2. UK jobs report, average earning index (Tuesday 16July 9:30am GMT)

3. US retail sales (Tuesday 16July 1:30pm GMT)

4. Fed Chair Powell speaks (Tuesday 16July 6:30pm GMT)

5. UK inflation (Wednesday 17July 9:30am GMT)

6. US consumer sentiment (Friday 16July 3:00pm GMT)

Chinese GDP has been slowing down since 2018 amid trade war and global risks. (Monday 15July 3:00am GMT)

It's predicted 6.2% q/y for the second quarter. It's the lowest level since 2009!

Releasing this news may effect on Aussie dollar, Kiwi Dollar and stocks.

If it is released above the expectation, it may boost Aussie/Kiwi dollar and may have positive impact on stock markets.

UK jobless rate remained low at 3.8%. it's expected to maintain at 3.8%.

(Tuesday 16July 9:30am GMT)

Average earning index has grown satisfying and now it's at 3.1% (y/y)

But, thanks to Brexit uncertainties, the central bank of UK, BOE, will not raise the interest rate until the Brexit issue ends.

It's expected for UK inflation rate to maintain at 2% (y/y). as we said before, for now, the most important matter which impacts on GBP is Brexit issues.

(Wednesday 17July 9:30am GMT)

US retail sales m/m is fluctuating near its 2years average.

It's expected for US retail sales 3% decline on June.

Jerome Powell will hold a speech about ‘'Aspects of Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era'' in Paris. In our thoughts, his speech won't aggregate the market. He spoke about the FED's monetary policy in the previous week.

The next important news about FED's decision will be out on 31July 13, 2019, when the FOMC meeting will be held. The market has been preparing itself for a dovish statement.

US consumer sentiment of Michigan will release on Friday. 98.6 is the level which has been expected for June.

Technical Analysis

US dollar index daily time frame

Target: 95.00

EURUSD w1 time frame

Target: 1.1460

GBPUSD daily time frame

Target: 1.3

USDJPY daily time frame

USDJPY h4 time frame

Target: 107.00

USDCHF daily time frame

Target: 0.96

USDCAD daily time frame

Looks dovish

Dow Jones daily time frame 27500 is very important resistance level.

Us oil 62 is very important resistance level

Author

Amir Khedri

Independent Analyst

Amir Khedri, the FX market analyst, lives in Tehran (Iran).

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