Weekly Market Brief (Forex and Commodities)

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7761 ( +87 or +1.13% )

The Aussie Dollar saw a strong break to the upside last week however Friday saw the emergence of sellers re-enter this market.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate

For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7729; followed by a retest of 0.7833.Should this occur we will look for this market to retest 0.7903; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move back up to 0.7988 and 0.8033.

If we cannot hold above 0.7729, we are likely to see a move lower into 0.7662. Should the downside momentum continue we could see a quick move into 0.7620; and if selling pressure is strong a move into 0.7600 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUR/USD – 1.2330 ( +49 or +0.4% )

The EURO continues to remain in a tight sideways range and as such our levels remain unchanged.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wed 19:00 – Final CPI (annual)
Fri 21:30 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2266 followed by a strong break through 1.2360. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to test 1.2420; and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2520.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.2266, we could see a move back down 1.2165 before a pause. This is an important level and any subsequent strong break and close below this level may see the EURO sell-off further into 1.2042 this week.

 

GBP/USD – 1.4238 ( +150 or +1.06% )

Cable is again attempting to breakout to the upside and we will know this week whether this third breakout attempt is successful. 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate
Wed 18:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 18:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)

For a move to the upside we would like to see the GBP/USD hold above 1.4194. A hold above this level followed by a subsequent break and close above 1.4305 could result in a quick move into 1.4469 and 1.4502; and if momentum is very strong to the upside 1.4630 cannot be ruled out.

If we cannot hold above 1.4194 we could see a quick move down into 1.4075. A continued sell-off may see another move lower into 1.3875 before a pause. However should we see a strong break below this level we may see Cable quickly trade down to the important 1.3743 – 1.3725 area.

 

USD/JPY – 107.36 ( +42 or +0.39% )

The $/YEN attempted to break our key 107.75 level but failed following friday’s close, ending the day right on our level below at 107.36.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:50 – Trade Balance

For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the market hold above 107.36. Should this occur we will then be looking for a quick move into 107.75. A strong break and close above 107.75 could then see a quick move into 108.31 before a pause. If momentum is very strong this week, we cannot rule out a move to 109.21 by the end of the week.

If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 107.36, we could see a move back down into 106.30 and subsequently 105.79. A break below this level could then see the USD/JPY trade quickly down to 104.97 before a potential pause.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1345 ( +12 or +0.9% )

GOLD rallied early in the week with another attempt to break highs, failing once again at 1365.

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1333. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1355, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1365. If momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1374 and 1394.

If Gold cannot hold above 1333, we will look for a strong move back down into last week’s close at 1322. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1303, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down into 1294.