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A day of consolidation after the FOMC wrong-footed a market net long USD’s into the announcement, where the consensus was for a dot plot adjustment from 4 to 3 rate hikes this year. The move to 2 was seen as dovish, and the USD has been on the rack since, though early trade in London today suggested there was some near term relief on the making. However, Cable in particular continues to test the upside, intent on a 1.4500 breach. This seems to be the focus at present, with NY likely to push higher, but EUR/USD highs at 1.1340 also under threat. AUD at .7680 and NZD at .6874 look to top the ranges for the week. USD/CAD extended its lows to 1.2919 however, though WTI through $40.0 and better than expected retail sales justified this. Looking ahead, it will be another USD focused arena in FX, with focus likely to be on the JPY. The BoJ are showing a little concern at these levels, and should we test 110.00, expectations of some official intervention will be heightened. 110.67 was the low seen Thursday, with BoJ presence prompting a short sharp ramp up towards 112.00. In the UK, inflation data due midweek, but Brexit fears likely to kick in again if Cable through 1.4500. In Europe, Ifo and Zew surveys unlikely to impact on EUR trade, but worth nothing.
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