Forex pairs & markets covered in this week’s Weekly Forex Forecast & Forex Analysis:
USD (DXY), EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD & NZD.
EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, NZDCHF, NZDJPY, Crude Oil (WTI), CADJPY, AUDJPY, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, EURCHF, SPX (S&P 500), Russell 2000, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nifty, XAUUSD (Gold Analysis), XAGUSD (Silver Analysis), BTCUSD (Bitcoin Analysis) & more!
Weekly notes
All eyes are focused on todays FOMC meeting in what is a busy week for economic data.
Recent Inflation data out of the US will increase the pressure on the FED to strike a Hawkish tone in todays meeting. With US Consumer, Manufacturing and Services data coming out strong recently in the US, this may give the FED additional confidence to turn up the Hawkish rhetoric today. All things considered further upside in the USD remains the next higher probability move.
Conversely, UK GDP and Employment data came out poor recently, adding pressure on the Bank of England to once again delay a Rate Hike in tomorrows meeting. With the GBP scoring as the weakest currency and the best short this week in the Forex complex, it seems the market is also betting on a delayed Rate Hike tomorrow as well.
The AUD and NZD continue to underperform and score as the next best shorts after the GBP this week. Safe haven currencies such as the CHF and JPY remain the highest scoring Longs this week once again.
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Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds steady near 0.6250 ahead of RBA Minutes
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note around 0.6250 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes released on Tuesday for some insight into the interest rate outlook.
USD/JPY consolidates around 156.50 area; bullish bias remains
USD/JPY holds steady around the mid-156.00s at the start of a new week and for now, seems to have stalled a modest pullback from the 158.00 neighborhood, or over a five-month top touched on Friday. Doubts over when the BoJ could hike rates again and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY.
Gold price bulls seem non-committed around $2,620 amid mixed cues
Gold price struggles to capitalize on last week's goodish bounce from a one-month low and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Monday. Geopolitical risks and trade war fears support the safe-haven XAU/USD. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD, capping the non-yielding yellow metal.
Week ahead: No festive cheer for the markets after hawkish Fed
US and Japanese data in focus as markets wind down for Christmas. Gold and stocks bruised by Fed, but can the US dollar extend its gains? Risk of volatility amid thin trading and Treasury auctions.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
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