Weekly column: Retrograde chaos navigating market whiplash

Review

Emerging markets were swept up in the global equities storm Friday, set for the biggest daily drop since August as investor concerns over US President Donald Trump’s trade threats and the fading prospect of a Ukraine ceasefire put pressure on risk assets.

— Zijia Song, “Emerging Markets Rattled on Threats to Trade, Ukraine Deal,” Bloomberg News, February 28, 2025.

It’s never easy when a personal planet turns retrograde, as Venus is doing this weekend. In these instances, trend, chart, and technical indicators often reverse – price structures break down or up sharply. Yet approximately half of the time, these turn out to be false breakouts or breakdowns.

Last week, a number of global stock indices broke down, falling below the levels that started their primary cycle, which means the trend has turned bearish. This also fits with the intermediate-term cycles message, which points to a 50-week and 3-year cycle low due this year. Yet this breakdown is happening within the time band of Venus turning retrograde, which has a higher than usual correspondence to false signals. What will it be this time? A breakout or a fake out? This predicament is discussed in a special update report just issued Friday, February 28, by Wiebke Held to all subscribers of the new MMA Cycles Tech Report. It will also be covered in depth in our weekly subscription reports that are going out on Saturday.

What moved the global stock markets to behave so schizoid last week? The “on-again, off-again, back-on-again” proposed tariffs for some countries but not others. The markets that fell hard were those in the U.S., where the tariffs were on again, as this stokes fears of higher inflation and disruption of supplies of goods. The markets that did well were those not subject to tariffs as of the last pronouncement. But under “retrograde chaos,” that could change at any moment again.

European indices were the main beneficiary of rallies last week. The Zurich SMI soared to a new all-time high on February 26, while the German DAX, Netherlands AEX, and London FTSE came close.

It was also a positive week for the Hang Seng of Hong Kong, which rallied to its highest level in three years. China’s Shanghai Composite was also in positive territory until the U.S. tariffs against China were announced on Friday. But Australia’s ASX, Japanese Nikkei, and especially India’s NIFTY indices took a pounding, with NIFTY collapsing to its lowest mark in over 8 months.

In the U.S., where tariffs are the equivalent of new taxes (higher prices) on consumers, the results were dramatic. The NASDAQ broke below the start of its primary cycle, which is a strong sign of a new bear market beginning. The S&P and DJIA are still above their January lows, and one might argue this is setting up as a case of bullish intermarket divergence. However, all indices are currently undergoing a case of intermarket bearish divergence off of the all-time high in the S&P back on February 19, which was not matched by the other indices. That seems to be the leading indicator that is valid at the moment, though it is possible Venus turning retrograde could soon support the more bullish divergence signal. However, it may only be short-term.

Gold followed a similar path. It made a new all-time of 2974 on Monday, February 21, but by Friday it was nearly $100 lower. The decline was even steeper in Silver, where prices tanked to 31.36 on Friday, well off its recent high of 34.56 on February 14. Another loser last week was  Bitcoin, which fell as low as 78,723 on Friday, a loss of over 28.2% from its all-time high of 109,071 made on January 20. This is right into the zone given for a decline in our recent Forecast 2025 webinar presented on February 16. That webinar has described the recent declines in metals and BTC almost perfectly. The recording is still available and valuable if you haven’t seen it yet.

Two other markets that declined last week but showed signs of a Venus retrograde reversal readying are Crude Oil and Soybeans.

Short-term geocosmics

A Trump blather blaming Ukraine for not negotiating segued into something he didn’t clearly mean, yet now his team must mumblingly agree Ukraine started the war.

— Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., “Trump’s Trumpy Ukraine Gambit,” Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2025.

Trump tempered some of his harshest criticisms of Ukraine, saying he “can’t believe” he once called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and vowing to help Kyiv reclaim as much seized territory from Russia as possible.

— Alexander Ward, Natalie Andrews, and Siobhan Hughes, “Trump Softens His Tone on Kyiv but Won’t Give Security Pledge,” Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2025.

“By universal custom, your enemy is never more polite than when he is planning or has planned your destruction.”

— James Clavell, Shōgun.

First of all, here is a correction to last week’s report. Adam Sommer, who wrote the excellent article on the Chiron Return in the USA chart I quoted, did not create the first astrology podcast as written. I was mistaken. Adam was one of the firsts. So was Gary Caton (Hermetic Astrology Podcast), a year before Sommer, and the late Kelley Lee Phipps, about four years earlier. It is good to get the history right, something I wish would take place more often in the world, such as how world leaders recount the history of who actually started the current war between Russia and Ukraine.

In the financial market news, President Trump proves once again that he is the master at solving problems that only he can create. In typical “retrograde chaos” fashion, diplomacy starts, then regresses, then starts again, then regresses again. Markets react to each initiative and then backstep, creating an ongoing and deepening sense of confusion that borders on a crisis threatening to wreak havoc on global stock markets.

With Venus turning retrograde, don’t expect this pattern to change quickly. In fact, Mercury will also turn retrograde on March 15, and both will cross over the 0° Aries “world point,” along with Neptune during the last week of March. This just also happens to fall on the Midheaven of the Federal Reserve Board chart, forming a T-square to its Sun/Pluto opposition. March through early April is also the period when transiting Saturn will T-square President Trump’s Sun/Moon opposition (with his Lunar Nodes). Not to mention there will be both a solar and lunar eclipse in March as well.

Still, some markets may actually benefit from these cosmic conditions, especially those that are due for primary or half-primary cycle lows, such as grains, metals, and cryptos.

This is a wild and whacky time with both Venus and soon Mercury retrograding together. It can make for excellent short-term trading. But it can also correspond to great frustration for both traders and political world leaders who are either not nimble and able to adjust positions quickly or too nimble and change positions too often. Timing is an issue that will make the difference between successfully navigating this period or going crazy.

If ever there was a time to practice meditation and deep breathing before acting out, this is one of those instances. Fortunately, Neptune, the planet supporting the pursuit of inner peace, will also be highlighted in March.