Weekly column: Mercury retrograde and the stock market

Review

Inflation extended a run of cooler readings in July, sealing the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its meeting next month. The consumer-price index rose 2.9% from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, the lowest reading since 2021 and slightly below economists’ expectations of 3%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, was 3.2%, also a three-year low.

—Sam Goldfarb and Nick Timiraos, “Cooling July Inflation Sets Stage for Fed’s September Rate Cut,” Wall Street Journal, August 14, 2024.

I’ll consider three gauges here, the CAPE [cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio], the forward PE and the Fed Model. All show that the offers being presented by Mr. Market—as legendary investor Benjamin Graham personified it—are unattractive for large U.S. stocks at present. They are expensive not only compared with the past but smaller stocks, foreign stocks, corporate bonds and Treasurys, too. If these measures are right, the rebound of the past couple of weeks is a fools’ rally, and it’s time to switch away from the biggest stocks.

—James Mackintosh, “Markets Are Way Out of Line With Reality,” www.wsj.com, August 16, 2024.

As expected, this Mercury retrograde cycle is doing something unexpected. Instead of its usual pattern of 1-4 day swings up and down in global stock markets, this Mercury retrograde (also known as “The Trickster”) started with a mini panic crash on August 5. Instead of reversing every 1-4 days, several global stock markets have made higher highs every day since it turned retrograde. It looks like a primary cycle low occurred right on the date the Trickster went on stage, faking a financial collapse and instead turning that low into a buying opportunity. But now, as we enter the midpoint of Mercury retrograde, we have to wonder if the rally is also a fake-out involving the resumption of the bull market. You have to be careful when the Trickster is in the spotlight, especially if Uranus is also highlighted, which will be the case on Monday, August 19, when the Full Moon makes a T-square to Uranus.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, all markets except China’s Shanghai Composite followed the same pattern of an important low on Aug 5, then a smart rally into Friday, August 16. The SSE, however, continued to fall to a new 6-month low on Thursday, August 15. China’s stock market and economy are currently suffering greater stress than most other major developed nations.

European indices all stuck to the same beat. That is, all bottomed around August 5-6 and rallied sharply into the close of August 16. The U.S. markets did the same. However, Brazil’s Bovespa index surprised everyone by soaring to a new all-time high on Friday.

Gold had a stellar week, exploding to another new all-time high on Friday as it tested 2550. Silver also performed well, rallying to test 29.00 on Friday, a gain of nearly 10% off the prior week’s low of 26.50. Bitcoin had an inside week, trading between the low and high of the prior week as it tries to determine whether it’s in a new primary cycle (bullish) off its multi-month low of August 5, or embarking upon one final phase of a decline to an older primary cycle (bearish). Crude Oil is pretty much in the same boat as Bitcoin, having bottomed on August 5 at 71.67, then spiking up to a high of 80.16 on August 12, only to pull sharply back again to a low of 74.52 on Friday.

Short-term geocosmics

 Regarding a geocosmic weather metaphor, you must consider this current period a “storm high-alert warning.” A slew of powerful geocosmic signatures is underway, with the midpoint occurring on Monday, August 19.

It started with Mars conjunct Jupiter on August 14 and with the Moon in Jupiter’s ruling sign of Sagittarius (Aug 13-15). The DJIA gapped up that day and, in fact, exhibited a “bullish island reversal,” which is usually a very bullish chart pattern (it’s a gap down previously that is then followed later with a gap up, and both gaps create a vacuum over the same price zone). August 15-17 finds the MMA Solar/Lunar Reversal App indicating a high. August 16-17 is the midpoint of this Mercury retrograde cycle, which often coincides with a price reversal +/- 2 trading days. Since the stock market is making highs now, you would anticipate that it would reverse down. However, given the bullish island reversal chart pattern and the presence of Mercury retrograde, that may not happen. Typical of the Trickster, you get conflicting signals or fake-outs of buy or sell signals. Thus, our policy is to hold off on entering new position trades until the retrograde cycle “tricks” end. This is usually a time band for aggressive traders only.

Monday, August 19, however, is the center of this cosmic storm. This is when the first of three passages of Jupiter square Saturn in mutable signs (unstable and erratic) takes place over the next 10 months. Venus in Virgo will add intensity to this mutable square, which will also make a mutable T-square with Jupiter and Saturn on Monday, August 19, while Mars in Gemini will add to the mix. Venus squares Mars on August 23, which ends this cosmic log jam for a few days. But the cosmic play of August 19 also contains a powerful Full Moon, with Uranus sitting right between the Sun and Moon in a fixed sign T-square. This Full Moon in T-square with Uranus is still close enough to involve Algol and thus to touch off that Mars-Uranus-Algol conjunction that took place in mid-July when the DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ all made their all-time highs. Is this to be a cosmic case of déjà vu? We note that two of the signatures unfolding on August 19 have an 80+% correlation to sharp reversals +/- 4 trading days. It might get very wild here.

It is also interesting to note that the Democratic convention in Chicago begins on Monday, August 19. With all this cosmic “shock and awe” in effect, astrologers will be watching closely for any signs of unusual activity related to the “Trickster” (Mercury retrograde) and the “Disruptor” (Uranus at the midpoint of the Full Moon). This ought to be a real-time lesson in Mundane Astrology. With Uranus, you expect protests. With Saturn, you might expect heavy security and police presence (and arrests). With Mercury also retrograde, you might be better off not expecting anything too specific because whatever you expect—it’s likely to be something else entirely. Think of “surprises,” maybe chaos, and possibly inspiration.

Longer-term thoughts: The U.S. election

Mr. Trump is much better than Ms. Harris in these more intimate (town hall) settings. She’s terrible, because she has no stable beliefs and stumbles trying to qualify her answers. There is virtually no chance of her submitting to a town hall before the election. It’s the teleprompter or bust for Ms. Harris. A town-hall format is also the venue most likely to keep Mr. Trump on message, because the participating voters will themselves be totally on message. If instead Mr. Trump’s strategy remains trying to tear apart Ms. Harris personally, so be it. But the Trumpians at those big rallies had better come to grips with the possibility that it’s a farewell tour.

—Daniel Henninger, “Have Trump Rallies Become a Political Loser?” Wall Street Journal, August 14, 2024.

It’s an interesting election when you look at the natal charts of both candidates dictated by the two-party system. Each has a “regal” inherent quality. As a result, both probably expect to be treated with a high degree of deference, or respect, to their “regal-like” self-identity. In former President Trump’s case, he is like the “Lion King, the king of the jungle.” Everybody must respect or fear him, with Mars conjunct his ascendant in Leo on the fixed star Regulus (the King).

Vice-President Harris has a similar astrological dynamic with her natal Sun in Libra in the fifth house. The fifth house has psychological themes in common with Leo. You might call this the “Queen Bee” signature, given that her natal Sun is in the sign of beauty (Libra). Is she a Queen who shows everyone mercy, compassion, and grace? Or is she more inclined to shout, “Off with his head,” like the Queen in “Alice in Wonderland,” to anyone who has the gall to challenge her power and authority?

Both Trump and Harris are born under Full Moons in fire signs, so there is apt to be a price to pay for those who do not demonstrate deference to either of them. Both have Mars in Leo, which is the most common sign placement in the charts of past presidents, according to astrological research conducted by Michael O’Reilly (www.neptunecafe.com). These are warriors (Mars) who will fight (Mars and fire sign moons) if they feel slighted or offended. They will also protect “their own” (that’s what lions, Leos, and fifth house Suns do, as well as the Moon in fire signs). Which begs the question: who are “their own?” Do they include all Americans? All humans? Democrats or Republicans only?

Then we have the third party candidates, chief of which is Robert Kennedy Jr. The powers behind the kings and queens of political theatre (and halls of power) don’t want him to be a part of this match and don’t want citizens to hear his voice. RFK was born on January 17, 1954, time unknown, although there is speculation that it may be at 5:32 PM. Still, no one has yet produced a birth certificate or any other acceptable document or record to validate this time. If indeed he is born at 5:32 PM, then he has his Sun in the 6th house of “service.” I would dub him “Servant of the People” (Obama had that, too). But will a “Servant of the People” have a chance to participate in a match involving the King and the Queen? If so, it would be an interesting contest/election because all three find transiting Saturn near the top of their natal chart, which means all three are in a cycle where they could be asked (or voted) to take on more demanding roles in life – in fact, the most demanding roles in their life. Just running for the office of U. S. president will be demanding. But the higher Saturn is in the chart, the more likely one takes on one of the most – if not the most – demanding tasks in their lifetime. You want to see transiting Saturn high up in the chart of the one who is elected. In comparison, transiting Saturn is at the bottom of Joe Biden’s chart now. It did not bode well for his re-election.

I have received several emails asking about RFK, which tells me there is probably more support for him than the MSM (Main Stream Media) is tapping into. I will be happy to comment on his astrological potential in this race if 1) we obtain a valid confirmation of his birth time and 2) if MSM and the 2-party power brokers will allow him into the debates and give him (and the American public) an opportunity to hear what he has to say and how he handles the questions asked of Trump and Harris. Until then, I am not holding my breath that the powers behind the two-party system want anything to do with what RFK might have to say, whether he deserves a voice in this election, and whether the public cares or not. That would be an authentic sign of real democracy and inclusion at work in American politics. It is something that is talked about as if owned by one party over the other, but it is absent in practice regarding this presidential election.