Weekly column: Jobs surge dims hopes for bigger Fed rate cut amid war tensions

Review

Employers added 254,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday. That was significantly more than the 150,000 economists expected, and marked the largest monthly increase since March. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%. Friday’s bumper payrolls report is likely to close the door on another half-percentage-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in November. It should keep officials on track to lower rates by a quarter point.

—Harriet Torry, “U.S. Hiring Accelerated in September, Blowing Past Expectations,” www.wsj.com. October 4, 2024.

Striking U.S. dockworkers will return to work Friday after reaching a tentative agreement with employers on an improved wage offer. The conditional offer was for a 62% wage increase. The offer is on the table for the next 90 days. If no deal is reached within that timeframe, the proposed wage hike will be pulled from the table

—Bradford Betz, “Dockworkers’ Union Reaches Tentative Agreement, Will Suspend Port Strike Until January,” www.foxbusiness.com/, October 4, 2024.

Beijing’s announcements of economic support last week have fueled China’s CSI 300 blue-chip index to rally over 25% in a nine-day winning streak.

—Anniek Bao and Sonia Heng, “China’s Stimulus Rally Has Already Sent Stocks up 25%,” www.cnbc.com. October 3, 2024.

It was a peculiar week for financial markets. But then again, it was a bizarre week in terms of competing but very significant mundane news events throughout the world that roiled some markets, propelled others, and yet, in most cases, just caused indecisive price movements back and forth. That is, there was the tragedy of Hurricane Helene, wreaking horrific damage and loss of lives across the Southeastern United States, happening at the same time U.S. dockworkers went on strike, threatening to collapse much of the economy if not resolved quickly. But then, it was resolved quickly. Then there were the stunning Israeli air strikes that wiped out much of the major leadership in Hezbollah, which then drew Iran to launch a massive missile attack on Israel, which in turn threatened a retaliation and further dismantling of Iran’s (and Hezbollah and Hamas) military if not their entire political leadership as the world moves ever closer to World War III, a possibility explained in our webinars and Forecast Books over the past two years as peaking 2023-2025. On top of that, there was finally a meaningful vice-presidential debate last week that each side claimed as a victory for their candidate.

With all these events transpiring in just one week, it was no wonder that most global stock indices didn’t know what to do. Most pulled back from the recent highs of Friday-Monday, September 27-30. But the declines were not steep. It was as if investors were confused as to whether the human suffering would lead to losses of business or increased profits due to new demands for services and equipment that would be needed to rebuild.

One stock index that defied this malaise of confusion was China, where the nation’s recent and new stimulus program ignited a huge rally. China’s SSE index exploded from a 5.5-year cyclical low at 2689 on the day of the lunar eclipse, September 18, to a new 17-month high of 3358 on Friday. That’s a spectacular gain of nearly 25% in just eight trading days! Prices also soared in sympathy in the Hang Seng stock index of Hong Kong.

Another market that exploded higher last week in response to the escalation of war tensions in the Middle East was Crude Oil. On October 1, Crude was trading near the lows of the year at 66.33. Three days later, on Friday, October 4, Crude Oil was up to 75.57, an increase of nearly 14%. But that was about it for markets that did extremely well last week. Silver performed fairly well, rising to a new yearly high on Friday of 33.22. But then it pulled back and closed nearly a dollar lower. Gold was like stocks, failing to make a new all-time after last week’s high of 2708. But it didn’t fall too hard either, holding its weekly lows around 2650. Bitcoin’s performance was similar. After making a new multi-month high of 66,426 on September 27, it dropped back slightly below 60,000 on Thursday. However, after the positive payroll reports, BTC rallied back above 62,000. It’s entering a time band for a low that will likely determine if a longer-term cycle trough is in or not. If it is, there could easily be new all-time highs by the end of this year.

Short-term geocosmics

Donald Trump has seen a significant boost in his 2024 election prospects. The Economist’s latest election forecast shows that Trump has a 1 in 2 chance of winning the Electoral College in November, and is forecast to win 264 Electoral College votes. Last week, he had a 2 in 5 chance of winning the election, and was forecast to get 257 Electoral College votes. Kamala Harris also has a 1 in 2 chance of winning the election, according to the forecast, and is predicted to win 274 Electoral College votes, down from this time last week, when she was predicted to pick up 281 Electoral College votes.

—Martha McHardy, Newsweek, October 4, 2024.

Toward the end of the debate, Democratic vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz asked Vance to affirm that Trump lost the last election. “Did he lose the 2020 election?” Walz asked. “Tim, I’m focused on the future,” Vance replied before he pivoted to press Walz about censorship on social media. “That is a damning non-answer,” Walz said. “I’m pretty shocked by this. He lost the election. This is not a debate, it’s not anything anywhere other than in Donald Trump’s world.”

—Ryan J. Reilly, “Damning Non-Answer’: Vance Refuses to Acknowledge Trump Lost the 2020 Election,” www.nbcnews.com, October 1, 2024.

Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed at least seven high-ranking Hezbollah commanders and officials in recent weeks, including the militant group’s chief Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated in a strike on his underground headquarters in Beirut on Friday. The strikes have dealt the most significant blow to the Iran-backed militant group since its formation in the early 1980s.

—Kara Fox and Tamara Qiblawi, “Israel Has Killed Multiple Hezbollah Leaders,“ www.cnn.com. October 1, 2024.

Rescue crews in parts of the southeastern US were still searching on Friday for those missing as they entered the eighth day since Hurricane Helene roared ashore in Florida and became the deadliest mainland hurricane in the US since Katrina in 2005. The death toll could grow higher, having surpassed 200 on Thursday, while the sheer scale of the devastation from wind and floods has slowed efforts to find many people’s loved ones and also get supplies to stranded communities and restore power to more than 700,000 people.

—Anna Betts, “US South-East Reels From ‘Catastrophic’ Devastation from Hurricane Helene,” www.theguardian.com, October 4, 2024.

The lunar eclipse of September 18 on Neptune brought torrential and damaging rains around the world. At the same time, Saturn retrograde and in semi-square aspect to Pluto has ignited major war activity in the Middle East. This is the first 1/8 of the 32-37 year Saturn/Pluto cycle that occurred on January 12, 2020, which coincided with the U.S. assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. At the time, many analysts thought that World War III would start. But then the COVID-19 pandemic commenced shortly after and all attention turned to that threat to human lives. The “war” that could have erupted was put on hold. However, the dynamics of Saturn and Pluto are now back and especially strong from September 10 to October 18.

The first 1/8 phase of a cycle is when the issues present at the conjunction return. This time, the Israeli forces eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in a well-coordinated air strike, followed by the elimination of the following top leaders of Hezbollah shortly after. In the study of astrology, assassination attempts are mostly ruled by Pluto and, to some extent, Uranus. Saturn, in a hard aspect to Pluto is an especially dangerous time. You may remember that the attack on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, occurred under the position of Saturn and Pluto. It pertains to conflicts – a fight –between power and control, where someone has to lose and be paid back (in the mind of at least one of the parties). This is not a dynamic of joyful celebration but rather fear of escalating danger from nature or human activity. In this instance, danger came via both venues: nature and human activity (hurricanes, floods, war, and retaliation).

The danger may continue, but at the same time, a break may also start arising as Jupiter’s theme of hope emerges next week. The week begins with the waxing Moon in Sagittarius (October 6-9), along with Jupiter turning stationary retrograde (October 9), followed by the Sun trine Jupiter on October 13. Markets may like this arrival of Jupiter energy as the rebuilding process gets underway.

Yet we are not done with Pluto, which turns stationary direct on October 11, followed by a Sun/Mars (war conflicts) waxing square on October 14. I would guess that the floods in the southeastern part of the U.S. are receding, and rescue efforts have led to many beautiful stories of human heroism. But I also think Israel’s war effort is still underway with an aim to wipe out the threat of existence it has endured by those who have wished for its destruction over the past 75 years. With both Jupiter and Pluto changing directions and thus highlighted, there could be a huge retaliatory campaign to seriously decapitate Iran’s (and Hezbollah’s and Hamas’) military and nuclear ambitions.

Also, Uranus is not done transiting over the fixed stars Caput and Algol (24-26 Taurus). In fact, Uranus (“the disruptor”) is now retrograding over these degrees in October-December 2024. Caput is a fixed star associated with ruthless behavior, and Algol is considered the “demon star.” Together, they were considered the stars of “beheading” or “decapitation,” or of losing one’s head/mind” over someone or something, by ancient astrologers. More positive traits would involve passion and falling in love. There can also be a quality of obsession regarding a lover, enemy, or a job to do. In other words, the effort to decapitate one’s enemy or to expose oneself to symbolically being decapitated by one’s opponent may be a cosmic force at work here in regard to Israel’s and Iran’s response to one another at this time. It may be a conflict that won’t stop until the head(s) of the other side is “decapitated.” One also wonders if it is at work in the former president’s obsession to deny the 2024 election results, which may very well cost him this year’s election. The Vice-Presidential debate last week went very well for J.D. Vance until right at the end when he was asked whether he (and his boss) accepted the results of the 2024 election, and he couldn’t give a straight answer. It may have turned an otherwise outstanding debate performance against him, for it reminded the public about the threat to democracy posed by the January 6, 2021, effort by President Trump to overturn the 2020 election result.

the question remains for investors and traders: how do you trade these aspects, these huge contradictory forces all going on at once? Well, war and natural calamities are, in fact, profitable for many companies. They support higher energy prices. They can also offer support to any commodity markets that benefit from a sense of crisis, such as precious metals and foods (like Wheat). With Saturn and Pluto in hard aspect, this is a crisis period and it favors commodities. However, it doesn’t necessarily lead to a collapse in equity markets, as one might assume. Their patterns are still bullish for the moment, even as the threat of an escalating war rages on.