Weekly column: How can debate and retrogrades shake up the US election?

Review

It was in fact as consequential as any presidential debate in history, and the worst night for an incumbent in history. It was a total and unmitigated disaster for Mr. Biden. It was a rout for Mr. Trump…. It is impossible to believe that the Democrats will continue with Mr. Biden as their presidential standard-bearer.

— Peggy Noonan, “The Most Important Presidential Debate Ever: It Was an Unmitigated Disaster for Biden and a Rout for Trump. Democrats Will Have to Face Reality,” Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2024.

Politics and financial markets exhibited a tug of war between the worrisome dynamics of Saturn turning retrograde and the ecstatic hopefulness of Neptune turning retrograde, with both stations taking place on June 29 and July 2, respectively. That is, some markets trolled their lowest price in several weeks while others continued making all-time or multi-year highs. In a way, the markets’ contradictory behavior reflected the stark contrast between the performance of the two U.S. presidential candidates in Thursday evening’s debate. One side was euphoric, the other was shocked and stunned by reality, and now they are in a state of crisis about their future (see “Short-Term Geocosmics” for more discussion).

Let’s look at last week’s conflicted market behavior. European stock markets were mostly stuck in congestion between their highs and lows of the past six weeks. The Netherlands AEX showed the most vigor with a triple top on June 26 to its all-time high. But for the third time, it was turned back as it tried to break out. Perhaps it was a sign of Neptune’s propensity for passivity in the presence of Saturn’s skepticism and doubts about future growth.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, it was an exhibition of several divergences. India’s NIFTY index was the star, showing great exuberance as it soared to another new all-time high. Japan’s Nikkei showed signs of renewed strength as it rallied to its highest level since April 4 and is now in striking distance of its all-time high made on March 22. The Australian ASX index was bound in congestion, whereas China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell to their lowest levels since early April. Thus, India and Japan appeared more under the spell of Neptune. On the other hand, China and Hong Kong were more under the foreboding weight of an uncertain financial future associated with Saturn.

The Americas fared much better, at least until Friday. Brazil’s Bovespa continued to rally smartly into Friday, June 28, following its primary cycle low of June 17. In the U.S., both the futures of S&P and NASDAQ attempted to hit a double top on Friday but then turned negative by the close for a key reversal down signal on a powerful geocosmic critical reversal date. The DJIA also was reaching for a double top on Friday but, like the others, could not hold its gains and closed negative on the day. Thus, continued the case of intermarket bearish divergence between the three indices.

Intermarket bullish divergence was also exhibited between the metals, with Silver dropping to a new cycle low on June 26, while Gold tested its low of June 7 on the same day, but held above it. What is quite remarkable is how the solar/lunar values on the new MMA app have worked extremely well for DJIA and Silver, and especially for Gold. The low of June 26 was yet another example of the new MMA market timing app identifying an isolated low from which Gold reversed at least 2% in the following 1-5 trading days. Much credit goes to MMTA graduate Yating Hu for coordinating the research studies on Gold going back to 1975 and to Jonathan Buehler, an exceptional programmer who is about to graduate from the current 2-year class of MMTA. The studies are based on the research design outlined in our books on solar/lunar trading for short-term (swing) traders. Yes, I am biased, but the results (objective) have been truly outstanding since the app was released on May 23.

Short-term geocosmics

If the debate was the president’s best chance to turn around a tight race with Trump, which has him in deep peril of losing reelection, it was a failure. Biden ended the night with the Democratic Party in crisis with serious conversations taking place behind the scenes among senior figures over whether his candidacy is now sustainable, two months before the Democratic National Convention.

—Stephen Collinson, “Biden’s Disastrous Debate Pitches His Reelection Bid into Crisis,” www.cnn.com, June 28, 2024.

And I went down to the demonstration
To get my fair share of abuse
Singing, “We’re gonna vent our frustration
If we don’t we’re gonna blow a fifty-amp fuse”  

You can’t always get what you want
You can’t always get what you want
You can’t always get what you want
But if you try sometimes, well, you just might find
You get what you need.

—Keith Richards and Mick Jagger, “You Can’t Always Get What You Want,” from the album Let It Bleed, Decca Records, 1969

I missed the U.S. presidential debate on Thursday night. But I had good reason for my absence, which is more than I can say for the current president of the United States, who probably wishes he could have missed that debate. My excuse? I had tickets to see one of the three greatest bands of my generation, “The Rolling Stones.” It was a gift from my children for Father’s Day. And, unlike the debate (which I saw upon returning from the concert), the performance was amazing. Mick Jagger, who is as old as Joe Biden, had more energy and vitality than even Donald Trump. The comparison of Jagger (and Keith Richards and Ronnie Woods) to the (lack of) vitality exhibited by President Biden was off the charts.

Now, what happens? And how will this affect financial markets? Everyone thinks Mr. Biden will bow out, which would probably be the most patriotic decision he could make. But that is not a given from an astrological point of view. His Sun is the fixed sign of Scorpio and is in the 12th house. Fixed signs are not by nature given to changing their minds if they believe something to be true and right. And the 12th house can be challenged to know the difference between reality and illusion (if not even delusion) when it comes to self (Sun). So, he may fully (and irrationally) believe he is the only person who can defeat President Trump, and that staying in the race is the patriotic thing to do. Efforts to convince him otherwise might very well be ignored at best or a cause for an angry outburst and rejection of the messenger at worst. Yet, Uranus is transiting his 6th house of health and service, in opposition to his natural Sun (vitality and leadership) and Mercury (nervous system and problems with communication). With Uranus in such an aspect, one’s lifestyle is vulnerable to a sudden change—either by choice (not likely given his fixity) or circumstance outside of his control (more likely).

On top of that, transiting Pluto is square to President Biden’s natal Moon. No one escapes Pluto’s transits unscathed. Pluto demands a surrender and a transformation of the path one is on. The more one resists, the more psychologically painful it becomes for the individual and those connected to him/her. In this case, it is the natal Moon, which represents one’s family. His wife or other family members may have to intercede and coax him to do something he resists doing—and something the vast majority of Americans want him to do—which is to let it go.

I won’t speculate at this time as to who might replace Biden (if he is even replaced), but I will say this: the period of time between the election and inauguration could be very chaotic. I can imagine a case where the outcome is unknown for some time and leads to a sudden spike in Treasury prices. As an investor, I would want to have cash available to pick up high-grade Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes that might offer exceptional yields (value) then.

In the meantime, both Saturn and Neptune are turning retrograde between now and Tuesday, July 2. This is a powerful reversal combination for many financial markets, most notably stocks, metals, and crude oil. It is also a powerful combination for those seeking a religious or spiritual experience. But if not careful, it can also lead to delusions and unintended consequences. One needs to be able to distinguish between what’s real and what is wishful thinking. If you act upon a fantasy and wishful thinking, you may find your dream turns into a nightmare. If you examine your dream and work out a realistic plan to attain it, it can become a dream come true. Imagination based on reality can be a powerful force for good. The same with trading. If you have an intuition about a market, do your studies, make your plan, and execute it. The result can be nicely profitable. This is a good time to identify a market making an important low or high and trade accordingly.