Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
USD/TRY
USDTRY hit new record high in the latest acceleration above 29 mark, signaling resumption of larger uptrend which was paused for a narrow consolidation in past two weeks.
Lira continues to trend lower despite recent U-turn in CBRT’s approach to the monetary policy, which was supposed to be one of key supportive factors for the Turkish currency, though current interest rate of 40% and significant gap in rates against other central banks, so far did not spark any stronger recovery of lira.
However, markets see prospect for significant lira’s recovery as strong headwinds are expected on approach to psychological 30 barrier, where bigger profit-taking would be expected.
Also, technical studies on weekly and monthly charts are strongly overbought and generating initial signals of deeper correction in the near-term.
Rising 10DMA (28.90) offers initial support, followed by 20WMA (27.75) and pivot at 25.20 (Aug 24 post-CBRT’s rate decision low).
Res: 29.28; 29.61; 30.00; 30.50.
Sup: 28.50; 25.75; 26.65; 25.20.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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