Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
The USDTRY is approaching an-all time high at 18.3387 as steady advance is on track to fully retrace 18.3387/10.2017 pullback, seen in December.
Despite weakening across the board in past few days, due to renewed risk appetite and profit-takin, the US dollar keeps firm tone against beleaguered Turkish lira, pressured by extremely high Turkey’s inflation, which stands around 70%, with additional pressure provided by continuous widening of current account deficit.
The C/A deficit widened by $4.01 billion in July vs forecasted gap of $3.6 billion, with more important fact that account deficit widened more every month this year.
Turkish lira may see some relief if US inflation falls further in August that would make the dollar less attractive, due to possible easing in rate hike size due to improved conditions, though potential recovery is likely to be limited, as lira remains under increased pressure from a number of internal factors (widening C/A gap; CBRT easing its policy despite a record high inflation).
Eventual break of a record high would expose psychological 20.00 barrier and Fibonacci projection (123.6%) at 20.2590 in extension.
Res: 18.2649; 18.3387; 19.0000; 20.0000
Sup: 18.1638; 18.1258; 18.0515; 18.0020
-637985926175417457.png)
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds steady near 0.6250 ahead of RBA Minutes
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note around 0.6250 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes released on Monday for some insight into the interest rate outlook.
USD/JPY consolidates around 156.50 area; bullish bias remains
USD/JPY holds steady around the mid-156.00s at the start of a new week and for now, seems to have stalled a modest pullback from the 158.00 neighborhood, or over a five-month top touched on Friday. Doubts over when the BoJ could hike rates again and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY.
Gold price bulls seem non-committed around $2,620 amid mixed cues
Gold price struggles to capitalize on last week's goodish bounce from a one-month low and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Monday. Geopolitical risks and trade war fears support the safe-haven XAU/USD. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD, capping the non-yielding yellow metal.
Week ahead: No festive cheer for the markets after hawkish Fed
US and Japanese data in focus as markets wind down for Christmas. Gold and stocks bruised by Fed, but can the US dollar extend its gains? Risk of volatility amid thin trading and Treasury auctions.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.