The long weekend is fast approaching, and traders are slowly winding down. So, I won’t waste your time with a lengthy report. But I just came across this chart of the USD/TRY, which you may want to keep in your watchlist. The Turkish lira hit a new 2019 low earlier today, causing the USD/TRY to break above its recent highs, before easing back slightly at the time of writing. This pair could potentially head further higher in early next week, potentially triggering similar moves in other emerging market currencies. Thanks to the USD/TRY’s recent gains, the three moving averages on the chart are all now pointing higher, objectively telling us that the bullish trend may have resumed. At this stage, only a break back below this month’s low at 5.4350 is needed to signal the bears are back in control.
Figure 1:
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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