USD slightly firmer amid mixed trading in Asia – CN antimony exports -97%

Asia market update: USD slightly firmer amid mixed trading in Asia; CN antimony exports -97%; Trump Admin picks continue.

General trend

- Customs data showed that China's Oct antimony shipments crashed 97% after export limits were announced back in August. China produces nearly half of the critical mineral used among other things for semiconductors. One analyst said that Western traders "are finding it increasingly difficult to navigate the risks involved in antimony trade".

- USD recovered some lost ground as the Asia session continued, particularly against the Yen, as it regained the 155 handle.

- Only the Kospi, Hang Seng and Shanghai equities saw some gains today, amid cautious trading in Asia.

- Japan’s October Trade Balance saw a fourth straight monthly deficit and at worse levels than expected, although exports rebounded higher. Semiconductor machinery exports jumped ~43%, but balanced by falling automobile exports, -0.9%.

- China PBOC kept Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged as expected, while the Yuan reference rate was again set >400bps stronger than the market, with USD/CNH having hit the 7.26 handle last week.

- US Pres-elect Trump continued to name more nominees for senior positions in his Administration, including billionaire wrestling mogul Linda McMahon as Education Secretary. CNN reported that the much anticipated Treasury Secretary position will be announced on Wednesday (US time). Later reporting said that Trump will again interview both Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan for the Treasury job, with Marc Rowan ‘emerging’ as the favored candidate.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% during the Asia session.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Wed Nov 20th (Wed eve UK Oct CPI. DE prelim Q3 GDP).

- Thu Nov 21st JP BOJ Ueda speech, AU RBA Bullock speech.

- Fri Nov 22nd JP Oct National CPI, JP + AU + IN Flash Nov PMIs, (Fri eve UK Retail Sales, DE Nov Flash PMI).

Holidays in Asia this week

- No holidays in Asia this week.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.1% at 8,379.

- Australia Oct Westpac Leading Index M/M: 0.18% v 0.01% prior (revised lower).

- Australia sells A$800M vs. A$800M indicated in 4.25% Dec 2035 bonds; Avg Yield: 4.5983% v 4.4657% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.00x v 2.66x prior.

- (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +1.9% v +4.8% prior [overnight update].

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens -0.2% at 19,623; Shanghai Composite opens -0.3% at 3,337.

- Follow up: China's Oct antimony shipments crash 97% after export limits imposed – Customs data; China is the world's largest producer of the critical mineral, producing 48% of global supply last year.

- China PBOC monthly loan prime rate setting (LPR).leaves key rates unchanged; as expected.

- (G20) French Pres Macron: China has an important role to play in avoiding nuclear tensions [overnight update].

- China PBOC reportedly asks financial institutions to stop buying offshore LGFV bonds under Southbound Bond Connect scheme - financial press [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1935 v 7.1911 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY302B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY69B v net injects CNY163B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.2% at 38,475.

- Japan Oct trade balance: -¥461.2B V -¥391.9BE.

- Japan Oct Tokyo Condominiums for Sale Y/Y: +23.4% v -13.7% prior.

- Norinchukin Bank Reports Q2 Net -¥481B v +¥80B y/y, Expects FY24/25 Net Loss ¥1.5-2.0T, larger than -¥1.5T forecast; Q2 Unrealized bond losses -¥1.51T v -¥2.3T in Q1; CLO holdings ¥6.5T v ¥7.3T in Q1.

Korea

- Kospi opens +0.2% at 2,475.

- South Korea Oct PPI Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0% prior.

- South Korea Q3 Short-Term External Debt: $158.7B v $142.0B prior.

- Korea Exchange: 'Value-up' fund to begin investment from Nov 21st - financial press.

- North Korea reportedly has shipped mechanized Howitzers, multiple rocket launchers to Russia - South Korean press.

- IMF: Expects South Korea to have 2024 GDP growth of 2.2%; sees 2025 GDP growth at 2.0%; notes risks are 'tilted to the downside', risks include trade slowdown and 'geoeconomic' tensions.

- (UR) Ukrainian Pres Zelenskiy: Confirms press reports that North Korean contingent of Russian forces could rise to 100K - speaking to EU Parliament [overnight update].

Other Asia

- Taiwan Economic Min: Co. might build one plant per year in Taiwan.

- Nvidia: Reportedly Taiwan's domestic supply chain participants pointed out that they have Not heard of the overheating of NVIDIA GB200 server; Two major foundries Foxconn and Quanta said to insist that the GB200 server cabinet shipment schedule remains unchanged - Taiwanese press [overnight update].

North America

- (US) Marc Rowan has 'emerged' as the top contender for Treasury Sec position - FT.

- (US) Pres-elect Trump said to interview both Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan for US Treasury Secretary job on Wednesday - financial press.

- (US) Pres-elect Trump said to name his choice of Treasury Sec as early as Wed (US time) - CNN.

- (US) Pres-elect Trump: Names wrestling billionaire Linda McMahon to be Secretary of Education - financial press.

- (US) Pres Elect Trump considers crypto lawyer Teresa Goody Guillen to lead SEC - CNN.

- (CA) Canada Oct CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.9%E.

- (US) Oct housing starts: 1.311M V 1.334E; building permits: 1.416M V 1.435ME (both lowest since July); Led by weakness in single family starts.

- (US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q4 GDP forecast from 2.5% to 2.6%.

- (IR) IAEA: Iran has agreed to stop producing near-bomb grade uranium; Agrees with IAEA to allow experienced inspectors to conduct verifications.

- (US) Pres Elect Trump names more senior nominees to his govt; Confirms choosing Cantor's Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary.

- (US) Fed's Schmid (non-voter for 2024; voter for 2025; hawk): Large fiscal deficits won't cause inflation because Fed will prevent it, though that would mean higher interest rates - speech text.

Europe

- UK PM Starmer to visit Saudi Arabia and UAE in Dec in attempt to secure investment for the UK - FT.

- (DE) Reportedly German SPD Ruling Party to meet later today over Chancellor candidacy - German press.

- (EU) ECB's Muller (Estonia): 25bps cut in Dec is likely; Do not see reason to move in bigger steps for now.

- (IR) Iran Foreign Min Araghchi: US will fail if it returns to 'maximum pressure' foreign policy.

- (IT) Italy PM Meloni: Reiterate support for Ukraine following deep missile strikes into Russia - G20.

- (HU) Hungary central bank (MNB) leaves base rate unchanged at 6.50%; as expected.

- (EU) ECB’s Panetta (Italy): Not 'blasphemy' that rates could go below neutral rate.

- (UR) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Attacks on border region with US-made ATACMS missiles is signal they seek escalation; Its Russia's position that a nuclear war won't happen; Nuclear weapons are a deterrent.

- (IR) IAEA: Iran has agreed to stop producing near-bomb grade uranium; Agrees with IAEA to allow experienced inspectors to conduct verifications.

- (UR) Ukraine reportedly makes first US-made atacms long-range missile strike inside Russia's border region - Ukraine press citing Ukraine military official [overnight update].

- (RU) Russian govt spokesperson Peskov on possibility of nuclear response by Russia: Ukraine using ATACMS missiles may cause response; Monitoring situation very closely [overnight update].

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 -0.1%, ASX 200 -0.6%, Hang Seng +0.3%; Shanghai Composite +0.8%; Kospi +0.5%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.1%; Dax +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.1%.

- EUR 1.0587-1.0610; JPY 154.53 -155.14; AUD 0.6522-0.6544; NZD 0.5903-0.5922.

- Gold +0.3% at $2,638/oz; Crude Oil flat at $69.27/brl; Copper +0.1% at $4.1720/lb.