USD/JPY steady ahead of key Japanese inflation release

• Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI on Friday.

• USD/JPY moves closer to symbolic 145 line.

• Ueda says no changes to policy unless core inflation rises.

USD/JPY has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, the yen is trading at 144.19, down 0.20%. The yen dropped as low as 144.70 in the Asian session, as the symbolic 145 line remains under pressure.

Tokyo Core CPI expected to tick higher

Japan releases a key inflation indicator, Tokyo Core CPI, on Friday. The indicator dipped to 3.2% in May but is expected to inch up to 3.3% in June. Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy, currently at 2.4% and known as the “core index”, will be under the microscope after the National “core index” rose unexpectedly in June. Earlier this week, BoJ Core CPI, the preferred inflation gauge of the central bank, rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, above the consensus of 3.0%.

If today’s inflation report also shows that inflation is creeping higher, it will put into question the BoJ’s stance that cost-driven inflation is temporary and therefore there is no need to tighten monetary policy.

Governor Ueda reiterated this position at the ECB Bank Forum on Wednesday. Ueda stated that he would continue the BoJ’s ultra-easy monetary policy unless he was “reasonably sure” that inflation accelerated in 2024. He said that the BoJ was not confident that this would occur, noting that even though headline inflation was above 3%, core inflation remained below the Bank’s 2% target.

The BoJ’s ultra-accommodative policy has seen the yen slide to 7-month lows, which has drawn warnings from the Ministry of Finance about intervening in the currency markets. Ueda declined to comment on the possibility of intervention, saying that the BoJ was closely monitoring the exchange rate and that the yen was influenced by many other factors besides BoJ policy.

USD/JPY technical

• There is a resistance line at 144.65 and 145.36.

• 143.94 and 142.94 are providing support.