- USD/JPY jumps to a multi-month top as the Trump enthusiasm provides a strong boost to the USD.
- Surging US bond yields, the risk-on environment and the BoJ uncertainty weigh heavily on the JPY.
- The supportive fundamental backdrop and the technical setup support prospects for further gains.
The USD/JPY pair rallies over 300 pips intraday and jumps to its highest level since July 30, around the 154.35-154.40 area in the wake of the US presidential election results, which showed that Republican nominee Donald Trump is leading the race. Adding to this, Republicans are projected to take the majority of the House after securing the Senate, triggering the renewed upside in the US Dollar (USD) and providing a strong boost to the currency pair.
Meanwhile, a Trump presidency revives fears about the launch of potentially inflation-generating tariffs. This, along with deficit-spending concerns and bets for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), pushes the US Treasury bond yields sharply higher. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond surges to its highest level since July 2 and contributes to driving flows away from the lower-yielding Japanese Yen (JPY).
Meanwhile, the “Trump trade” triggers a fresh leg up in the equity markets and turns out to be another factor undermining the safe-haven JPY, which fails to gain any respite from the hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting minutes. The Japanese central bank reiterated that it will continue to hike interest rates if economic & price forecasts are met. Investors, however, seem convinced that Japan's political landscape could make it difficult for the BoJ to tighten policy further.
This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the upside. Hence, any corrective decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases from the US. As investors assess the US election results, the focus will shift to the highly-anticipated two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting starting this Wednesday.
The US central bank will announce its decision on Thursday and is widely expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points. Investors, meanwhile, will closely scrutinize the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference for cues about the future policy outlook. This, in turn, will influence the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, Wednesday's strong move up comes on the back of the overnight resilience below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and acceptance above the 154.00 mark, supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. Hence, a subsequent move up towards the 154.70-154.75 intermediate hurdle, en route to the 155.00 psychological mark, looks like a distinct possibility. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 155.20 area (July 30 high), above which spot prices seem more likely to extend the recent positive momentum from the September monthly swing low.
On the flip side, the 153.50-153.45 horizontal zone now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 153.00 round figure. Any further decline could attract dip-buyers near the 152.45-152.40 area, which, in turn, should help limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair near the 152.15 region. This is closely followed by the 152.00 mark, which if broken decisively might expose the 200-day SMA resistance breakpoint, now turned strong support, near mid-151.00s. The latter should act as a strong near-term base and a key pivotal point for spot prices.
USD/JPY daily chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD struggles near 1.0550 amid dour mood
EUR/USD struggles near 1.0550 in the European morning on Thursday. The pair faces headwinds from risk-off flows due to rising geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine and worries over the potential US tariffs on the EU. ECB- and Fedspeak are awaited.
GBP/USD trades around 1.2650, upside potential seems limited
GBP/USD keeps its range near 1.2650 in early European trading on Thursday. The pair's sidetrend could be attributed to the softer US Dollar and a risk-aversion market environment. Traders stay cautious amid rife geopolitical tensions and a light economic calendar. Fedspeak eyed.
Gold price retains its bullish bias near one-week high amid rising geopolitical risks
Gold price maintains its bid tone heading into the European session and currently trades around the $2,660 level, or a one-and-half-week high touched earlier this Thursday. This marks the fourth straight day of a positive move and is sponsored by geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine war.
Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange
Shiba Inu (SHIB) trades slightly higher, around $0.000024, on Thursday after declining more than 5% the previous week. SHIB’s on-chain metrics project a bullish outlook as holders accumulate recent dips, and dormant wallets are on the move, all pointing to a recovery in the cards.
Why Nvidia’s story is far from over
Nvidia delivers another earnings beat: Nvidia exceeded expectations with $35.08 billion in revenue, a 94% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in its data center business, which more than doubled to $30.8 billion.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.