USD/JPY outlook: Bulls hesitate on approach to 160.00 barrier, potential intervention trigger

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USD/JPY

USDJPY edges lower after hitting levels just ticks away from 160 barrier, which many see as a trigger for intervention, as Japan’s authorities intervened at the end of April when the pair cracked 160 barrier.

Monday’s trading was closed in red for the first time in eight days, although long tail of daily candle suggests that bids are still very strong and markets may attack 160 level again, despite intervention threats.

Dips were so far shallow and contained by rising 5 DMA, keeping lower triggers at 158.25/157.87 (rising 10DMA / Fibo 38.2% of 154.54/159.93 upleg) out of reach for now.

Fading bullish momentum and overbought conditions on daily chart add to correction signals.

Any pullback above these supports should be considered as a healthy correction and keep larger bulls intact.

On the other hand, firm break here would point to deeper correction.

Res: 159.70; 160.00; 160.19; 160.87.
Sup: 158.66; 158.25; 157.87; 157.38.

Interested in USD/JPY technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 161.31
2. R2 160.62
3. R1 160.12
PP 159.44
1. S1 158.94
2. S2 158.25
3. S3 157.76

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1850

EUR/USD inches lower during the Asian hours on Monday, trading around 1.1870 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 56 stays above the midline, confirming improving momentum. RSI has cooled from prior overbought readings but stabilizes above 50, suggesting dips could stay limited before buyers reassert control.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes

The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold buyers hesitate amid holiday-thinned trading

Gold trades volatile, but within range, as US, China holidays-led thin trading exaggerates moves. The US Dollar extends range play into the US GDP week, with markets pricing at least two Fed rate cuts this year. Technically, Gold tests key support at $5,000; daily RSI still remains bullish.

Top Crypto Losers: Dogecoin, Zcash, Bonk – Meme and Privacy coins under pressure

Meme coins such as Dogecoin and Bonk, alongside the privacy coin Zcash (ZEC), are leading the broader market losses over the last 24 hours. DOGE, ZEC, and BONK ended their three consecutive days of recovery with a sudden decline on Sunday, as crucial resistance levels capped the gains. Technically, the altcoins show downside risk, starting the week under pressure.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.