USD/JPY nears ¥150 on neutral Ueda

Asia market update: Quiet day in Asia amid Lunar New Year holidays; US-CN EV war brewing?; USD/JPY nears ¥150 on neutral Ueda; Kiwi jumps on tier 1 bank RBNZ OCR forecast; CN Lunar New holidays from today to Feb 18.

General trend

- Biden Admin said to consider restrictions on China EVs in order to address 'data security concerns' - US financial press.

- New Zealand 2-year yields jumped +10bps to 4.95% on a surprise release of expectations by ANZ bank of an increase in the NZ OCR rate of 0.5% by April (from 5.50% to 6.00%).

- NZD hits 8 month high against AUD.

- USD/JPY rises to highest since Nov 27 (~149.50) amid neutral comments from Ueda and govt officials.

- US equity FUTs flat during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Fri 9th CN Q4 Current Account (prelim).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Fri Feb 9th Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam.

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens flat at 7,639.

- Australia RBA Gov Bullock: Have some ways to go to meet our target; Board focused on lowering inflation.

- RBA Asst Gov Kent: The RBA Board needs to judge cost-benefit in considering QT - Australia press.

- ANZ bank now sees New Zealand RBNZ raising cash rate in Feb and Apr; to 6.00% by April.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens -1.1% at 15,709 (Note: Early close today for Lunar New Year holiday).

- Shanghai Composite closed for Lunar New Year holiday.

- Biden Admin said to consider restrictions on China EVs in order to address 'data security concerns' - US financial press.

- China CSRC said to fine 'some people' for illegal stock trading - financial press.

- (HK) Macau expects at least 960K tourists during the 8-day Chinese New Year golden week v 2.94M arrivals during whole month of Dec – press (overnight update).

- China 2024 CPI growth seen at ‘moderately low’ level [inline]; cites analyst – Economic Information Daily.

- (RU) Russia's Moskva container ship reportedly denied bunkering in China – press (overnight update).

- China PBOC Q4 Monetary Policy Implementation Report: Reiterates vow to keep monetary policy prudent and prevent systemic risks (overnight update).

- China President Xi: Need to have close strategic collaboration with Russia - following call with Russia Pres Putin (overnight update).

- China Pres Xi: China to further comprehensively deepen reforms; country should enhance positive economic recovery - speech ahead of Chinese Lunar New Year holidays (overnight update).

- Siemens (SIE.DE) CEO: Chinese private consumption drops; Chinese markets are still very slow and may take longer to recover - post earnings comments (overnight update).

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1036 v 7.1063 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY44B in 7-day reverse repos; Sells CNY92B in 14-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY53B v injects CNY302B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.1% at 36,915.

- Nikkei 225 hits 37,000 for first time since Feb 1990.

- Japan Jan M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3% prior ; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7% prior.

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Ueda: Said to mull NIRP rate to stay if price goal comes into sight - Parliament testimony.

- IMF Report: BOJ should raise interest rates gradually over a few years.

- Japan Fin Min Suzuki: Daily stock market moves set by markets with various factors behind it; No comment on FX day-to-day moves - Japan press.

- Japan Econ Min Saito: Toyota is investing in TSM Japan Fab in order to boost its supply chain; Got to provide support to the leading edge semi-conductor technology center [funding unspecified] - Japan press.

- Chief Cabinet Sec Hayashi: Expects BOJ to cooperate with govt closely and conduct monetary policy appropriately - Japan press.

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Dep Gov Uchida: Easy financial conditions to stay based on the current view (overnight update).

- Japan sells ¥5.8T v ¥5.8T indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.1222% v -0.1440% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.81x v 2.90x prior.

- Japan sells ¥2.5T in 5-year JGB bonds; AVG yields: 0.3100% V 0.1970% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.44 V 3.79X prior (lowest demand ratio since August).

South Korea

- Kospi closed for holiday.

- Bank of Korea says Hwang Kunil nominated for Policy Board - Korea press.

Other Asia

- Thai Central Bank Asst Gov Piti: Monetary policy is conditional on economic outlook - Thailand press

- Philippines Fin Min Recto: Policy rates are high enough and could go down in H2 (overnight update)

North America

- (US) Centom: Carried out 7 self-defense strikes against four Houthi unmanned surface vehicles on Feb 8th - US financial press.

- (RU) US political commentator Tucker Carlson releases his interview with Russia Pres Putin.

- (US) BofA Jan credit & debit card spending per household -0.2% y/y v +0.2% y/y prior (1st drop since Oct 2023); Suggests the report in line with its forecasts would point to a healthy US consumer, but online retail spending (card not present) was down.

- (US) Initial jobless claims: 218k v 220ke; continuing claims: 1.871M v 1.876ME (come off 2-month highs).

- (US) Fed’s Barkin (voter): Economic data has been remarkable across the board, but will not take too much signal from any one month at the moment.

- (US) Weekly EIA natural gas inventories: -75 BCF VS. -75 BCF TO -77 BCF indicated range.

- (US) Treasury $25B 30-year bond auction draws 4.360% V 4.769% prior; bid to cover 2.40 V 2.24 prior and 2.34 over the last four auctions.

- (US) Fed's Collins (non-voter): My baseline for rate cuts this year is similar to the 75bps suggested by the Dec SEP.

- US Supreme Court justices appear sympathetic to Trump's appeal of Colorado ballot disqualification - press.

Europe

- (RU) US political commentator Tucker Carlson releases his interview with Russia Pres Putin.

- ECB’s Wunsch (Netherlands): Wage increases holding up potential rate cuts; Worth waiting for more data to evaluate.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +0.3% ; ASX 200 +0.1% ; Hang Seng -1.1% ; Shanghai Composite closed ; Kospi closed.

- Equity S&P500 Futures flat; Nasdaq100 flat, Dax -0.1%; FTSE100 +0.1%.

- EUR 1.0769-1.0780; JPY 149.24-149.49; AUD 0.6487-0.6500; NZD 0.6090-0.6130.

- Gold flat at $2,047/oz; Crude Oil -0.2% at $76.06/brl; Copper -0.1% at $3.7018lb.