USD/JPY Forecast: Pressure ease but bullish potential limited

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

USD/JPY Current Price: 107.20

US April’s unemployment rate may be at around 19% according to a White House Advisor.
USD/JPY recovered the 107.00 level but lacks follow-through.

The USD/JPY surged to 107.21 to settle around the 107.00 figure. The pair surged from its latest comfort zone around 106.60, at the same time the greenback fell against its European rivals, as part of month-end fixing. The yen fell despite sentiment deteriorating post-ECB, with equities turning red in the region and dragging Wall Street lower. This last was also affected by US employment data showed that over 3.8 million people filed for unemployment last week. White House Adviser Hassett later said that he expects April’s job report to show an unemployment rate of around 19%.

Japan released at the beginning of the day March Retail Trade figures, which were down by 4.5% in the month and by 4.6% when compared to a year earlier. Large Retailers’ Sales plunged by 10.1%, while Industrial Production was down by 3.7%. Meanwhile, April Consumer Confidence fell to 21.6 from 30.9 previously. The country will release this Friday, April Tokyo inflation, seen up by 0.4% YoY and the April Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, previously at 43.7.

USD/JPY short-term technical outlook

The USD/JPY pair is holding above the 107.00 level, but further gains are still unclear. The 4-hour chart shows that it’s developing above a mild-bearish 20 SMA, but still below the larger ones, with the 100 SMA heading south around 107.70 a former relevant resistance. Technical indicators entered positive territory, but lack follow-through beyond neutral levels, with the RSI partially losing their bullish strength.

Support levels: 106.95 106.50 106.10

Resistance levels: 107.30 107.70 108.05

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.