USD/JPY Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

USD/JPY Elliott Wave technical review

• Function: Counter Trend.

• Mode: Impulsive.

• Structure: Navy Blue Wave 3.

• Position: Gray Wave C.

• Next higher degree direction: Navy Blue Wave 4.

• Invalidation level: 158.898.

Analysis summary

The daily Elliott Wave analysis of USDJPY presents a counter-trend structure with critical implications for medium-term price movement. The focus is on navy blue wave 3, currently unfolding as part of the larger gray wave C.

The prior navy blue wave 2 appears complete. The currency pair is now entering the impulsive phase of navy blue wave 3. This wave forms a key segment of the ongoing corrective structure, providing traders with potential for active positioning.

Technical assessment

A break below the key invalid level at 158.898 would call the current wave structure into question. As long as the price stays above this point, the analysis remains valid and supports the scenario of a developing impulsive wave within a broader corrective pattern.

Upon completion of navy blue wave 3, a new correction phase, navy blue wave 4, is expected. Traders are advised to monitor wave characteristics—especially the momentum patterns that often define impulsive moves within corrections.

Trading outlook

This Elliott Wave setup provides a valuable framework for understanding short-term strategies and long-term positioning. The focus should be on maintaining awareness of both wave degree interactions and overall market context.

USD/JPY Elliott Wave technical review

• Function: Bearish Trend.

• Mode: Impulsive.

• Structure: Orange Wave 1.

• Position: Navy Blue Wave 3.

• Next higher degree direction: Orange Wave 2.

• Invalidation level: 150.508.

Analysis summary

The 4-hour Elliott Wave analysis for USDJPY outlines a bearish trend that could be gaining momentum. The analysis identifies orange wave 1 as the primary wave currently unfolding. This structure belongs to the broader navy blue wave 3 within the larger wave count.

Navy blue wave 2 appears to have ended, and the market is now moving into orange wave 1 of 3, initiating a potential impulsive decline.

Technical assessment

The key invalidation point is 150.508. If this level is broken, it would invalidate the current bearish wave count. As long as price remains below this level, the outlook supports further downside movement.

After orange wave 1 completes, a corrective phase labeled orange wave 2 is expected before the pair possibly resumes its bearish direction in orange wave 3.

Trading outlook

This setup highlights both short-term trade entries and longer-term strategy. The structure of orange wave 1 provides an early opportunity to position short, aligned with the evolving bearish momentum. Market participants should look for confirmation signs like sharp price drops and increased volume.

Risk management remains critical, especially around the defined invalidation level.

Technical analyst: Malik Awais.

USD/JPY Elliott Wave technical review [Video]