Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital
Major Pairs Summary
30 December 2019/8:07 a.m. EST
Positioning
Long EUR/USD and AUD/USD
Dollar Index - Pg. 2 (a break of 96.56 swing low sets up 95.50)
USD/JPY Pg. 3-4 (still a bit confused here)
EUR/USD Pg. 5 (into some near-term retracement resistance)
USD/CHF Pg. 6 (looking for a reaction higher soon)
GBP/USD Pg. 7-8 (watching for a reaction lower for possible long entry)
USD/CAD Pg. 9 (longer term picture seems clear; daily not so much)
AUD/USD Pg. 10 (fresh swing high)
US $ Index Daily: No change. Working from the premise minor correction rally Wave (ii) is complete at 97.82; targeting to 95.35 for minor Wave (iii); swing support comes in at 96.57.
USD/JPY Daily: A double-top at 109.72. Our primary view is a move toward 110.69-94 extended Wave (c) of [ii] by 61.8% of (a). Alternative Wave [ii] top at 109.72. Confidence low here; but the rally does seem corrective, suggesting the next top either 109.72 or 110.69 will be a longer-term top.
Divergence in the recent tight correlation between USD/JPY and Stocks continues…
EUR/USD Daily: A new daily swing high today, as the pair rallied into the 61.8% retracement level (1.1418 high/1.0877 low). Maybe some near-term “profit taking” at this level. But remaining long for a push toward 1.1367 or more.
USD/CHF Daily: We wouldn’t be surprised to see a minor corrective rally in Wave (iv) here; as we were targeting to 0.9710 on for minor Wave (iii)—the low today is 0.9712.
GBP/USD Daily: It appears intermediate-term Wave 2 is complete at 1.2903 (just below at 38.2% retracement level); setting the stage for a sharp rally in Wave 3; we are targeting up toward 1.3600 for Wave 3. Looking for an opportunity to add long here on a corrective pull-back (see 240-min chart next page).
GBP/USD 240-min View: A bit extended into a 38.2% retracement today at 1.3136. Will we get a chance for a long entry on a near-term correction? Watching.
USD/CAD Weekly: Our daily analysis has been sketchy for CAD of late, to say the least. But on a weekly basis the pattern seems clearer. We suspect we will push much lower in this pair; it supports our optimism for commodity currencies across the board.
AUD/USD Daily: Pushing higher; now into 78.6% retracement from the 78.6% retracement level. We remain long from 0.6839.
Currency Currents is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized investment advice. The money you allocate to options should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. While every effort is made to evaluate the actual experience of subscribers, all performance figures must be considered hypothetical, and past results are no guarantee of future performance. Detailed disclaimer can be found at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer.html
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remains in the red below 0.6500 on US-China trade risks
AUD/USD remains under selling pressure below 0.6500 in the Asian session on Tuesday, reversing some losses. Trump's threatened additional 10% tariffs on China, weighinmg heavily on risk sentiment and the China-proxy Australian Dollar while lifting the haven demand for the US Dollar.
USD/JPY ranges around 154.00 as US Dollar strength offsets risk aversion
USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range at around 154.00 in Tuesday's Asian trading. Fresh tensions surrounding US-China trade war underpin the safe-haven US Dollar, limiting the risk-off sentiment-driven gains in the Japanese Yen. Fed Minutes are next in focus.
Gold: Trump tariffs threat lifts XAU/USD, focus shifts to Fed Minutes
Gold price has staged a solid comeback so far this Tuesday’s trading after hitting a six-day low at $2,605 in early dealings. Gold buyers look forward to the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) November meeting for the next push higher.
TRON Foundation becomes the largest investor in Donald Trump's World Liberty Financial
Donald Trump-backed DeFi platform, World Liberty Financial, received new support on Monday after Tron founder Justin Sun announced that the Tron Foundation had invested $30 million into the president-elect's platform, making them its largest financial supporter.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.