USD/CHF outlook: Swiss Franc falls after SNB's surprise 0.50% rate cut

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USD/CHF

USDCHF rose to two-week high on 0.8% jump on Thursday morning, after the Swiss National Bank surprised by 50 basis points rate cut (0.50% from 1%) against widely expected 25 basis points cut.

This was the fourth policy easing in 2024, following three 0.25% cuts in March, June and September, and the biggest rate reduction in nearly a decade.

The SNB said it will continue to monitor the situation and act accordingly in order to maintain price stability and inflation within the central bank’s0%-2% range (November inflation was 0.7%).

Fresh post-SNB acceleration extended recovery leg from 0.8725 (Dec 6 higher low) into fifth straight day and broke above Fibo 61.8% retracement of 0.8957/0.8725 pullback, also denting the lower platform at 0.8890 zone.

Sustained break above these levels is needed to validate fresh bullish signal and open way for full retracement of 0.8957/0.8725 bear-leg.

Technical studies on daily chart are still mixed as 14-d momentum dips further in the negative territory, conflicting MA’s in bullish configuration and formation of 10/200 DMA golden cross.

Near-term bias is expected to remain with bulls while the price stays above broken Fibo 50% level at 0.8841, reinforced by 20DMA, which reverted to support.

Caution on loss of 200DMA pivot (0.8824) which would signal recovery stall and shift near-term focus to the downside.

Res: 0.8869; 0.8893; 0.8902; 0.8917.
Sup: 0.8841; 0.8824; 0.8814; 0.8780.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD remains cautious near 1.1760 ahead of US data

EUR/USD trades marginally on the defensive at the end of the week, hovering around the 1.1770-1.1760 band against the backdrop of an equally humble advance in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, investors gear up for the release of key US data later in the day, including PCE and GDP figures.

GBP/USD looks slightly bid near 1.3480, focus on US docket

The British Pound gathers some fresh steam on Friday, prompting GBP/USD to reverse four consecutive days of losses and revisit the 1.3480 zone. Cable’s decent bounce comes on the back of modest gains in the Greenback prior to the release of significant US data.

Gold extends the recovery past $5,000/oz, looks at US data

Gold prices advance for the third straight day on Friday, reaching new multi-day highs just north of the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce. The continuation of the precious metal’s uptick follows steady geopolitical effervescence in the Middle East, while traders eagerly await key US data releases.

US GDP growth expected to slow down significantly in Q4 after stellar Q3

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the first preliminary estimate of the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product at 13:30 GMT. Analysts forecast the US economy to have expanded at a 3% annualized rate, slowing down from the 4.4% growth posted in the previous quarter.

Week ahead – Markets brace for heightened volatility as event risk dominates

Dollar strength dominates markets as risk appetite remains subdued. A Supreme Court ruling, geopolitics and Fed developments are in focus. Pivotal Nvidia earnings on Wednesday as investors question tech sector weakness.

Official Trump price approaches breakout with mixed signals from traders

Official Trump (TRUMP) is trading at $3.50 at the time of writing, approaching its upper consolidation range. A breakout from this range could open the door for an upside move. On-chain data shows market indecision, with balanced flows between bulls and bears, signaling a lack of clear directional bias.