USD/CAD holds steady as BoC decision looms

USD/CAD is in recovery mode but not out of the woods.
Resistance within short distance at 1.4430-1.4465.
Bank of Canada expected to lower interest rates.

Christina Parthenidou XM

USDCAD has been in a gradual recovery phase over the past week, resuming its sideways structure from mid-December after a temporary drop to 1.4259.

With the clock ticking down to the BoC policy announcement (14:45 GMT), which could reveal the sixth consecutive reduction to 3.0%, investors are wondering whether the bulls can lift the pair beyond its four-year high of 1.4484.

The upturn in the RSI and the stochastic oscillator looks promising, though the broken support trendline from September, which is now acting as resistance near 1.4430, remains a struggle. The upper band of the rectangle seen around 1.4465 will be closely watched as well. A break above this zone could trigger a surge towards the 2020 and 2016 highs encapsulated within the 14650-1.4700 zone, with the next major target seen near the constraining ascending line around 1.4780-1.4800.

In the event of a backward flip, the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.4360 could provide a cushion ahead of the 1.4255-1.4290 area, which includes the 50-day EMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the September-January uptrend. A step lower could signal a potential negative trend reversal, prompting a swift decline towards 1.4100.

For now, USDCAD is holding a neutral bias, with traders waiting for either a decisive move above 1.4430-1.4465 or below 1.4255-1.4290 to drive the pair accordingly.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates

Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space

After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000. The US economic calendar will feature Nonfarm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index data for January, which could influence the market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and impact Gold’s performance.

Week ahead: US NFP and CPI data to shake Fed cut bets, Japan election looms

US NFP and CPI data awaited after Warsh’s nomination as Fed chief. Yen traders lock gaze on Sunday’s snap election. UK and Eurozone Q4 GDP data also on the agenda. China CPI and PPI could reveal more weakness in domestic demand.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.