USD/CAD Forecast

Dollar/CAD slipped from the highs in a much-needed correction. The upcoming week’s highlights are the inflation and retail sales reports. What’s next? Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canadian housing figures were mixed: housing starts beat expectations with 217K while building permits plunged by 5.5%. In the US, the Fed’s worries about inflation hurt the greenback and eventually, the inflation data hurt as well. Oil prices advanced and helped the loonie recover.

Updates:

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USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it.

1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Monday, 12:30. This is a measure of inflows into Canada. Back in July, it beat expectations with 23.95 billion, showing confidence. A lower number is likely now.

2. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. The quarterly report provides an insight on the economy, especially as it is released early in the quarter and comes from the BOC. After a very strong Q2, it will be interesting to see if the report points to a cooldown in the economy.

3. Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. In the past two months, the volume of sales disappointed with bigger-than-expected falls. After a slide of 2.6% in July, we can expect a bounce now. The figure tends to move the loonie.

4. Inflation report: Friday, 12:30. The Bank of Canada sees inflation as rising in the near future these expectations supported the rate hikes. But is inflation really rising? Headline CPI rose by 0.1% in August. Core CPI remained flat and disappointed last month. The BOC also releases additional core measures: Common CPI stood at 1.5% y/y, the Median at 1.7% and the Trimmed at 1.4%. If they all move in one direction, the loonie will feel it as well.

5. Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. If inflation does not provide big surprises, retail sales can take the lead in moving the C$. The volume of sales rose by 0.4% in July. Core sales lagged behind and rose by 0.2%.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD dropped to lower ground but managed to escape the 1.2410 level mentioned last week.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.2770 capped a recovery attempt in August and is our top line for now. 1.2665 was a swing high of a move higher in early September. It is followed by 1.26, a rdoun number that worked as resistance in October.

1.2540 capped the pair in early October when it traded in a narrow range. 1.2410 held the pair cushioned for some time but was eventually broken. 1.22 is a round number and also worked as support a few years ago.

1.22 is a round number and also worked as support a few years ago. 1.2065 is the (current) swing low of September 2017. It is followed by the obvious level of 1.20.

I am bearish on USD/CAD

It seems that the consolidation may have reached an end. The data could provide the next leg of rises, as well as the rising prices of oil. In the US, hesitation over inflation weighs.