USD/CAD doubts September’s upturn

USD/CAD trims September’s uptick to trade near key trendline.
Technical signals are mixed; a break below 1.3480 could shift the bias to the downside.
US & Canadian employment figures due at 12:30 GMT.

Christina Parthenidou XM

USDCAD started Friday’s NFP session with soft negative momentum after a stagnant day, which prevented the pair from examining its weekly high of 1.3564.

While the technical indicators have barely shown any improvement, there is still a chance for a positive turnaround as long as the RSI maintains its rebound off its 30 oversold level and the MACD holds above its red signal line. Encouragingly, the price itself seems to have created a green doji candlestick on Thursday, but the candlestick pattern still needs confirmation.

A decisive close below 1.3480 and beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December-July upleg could renew selling pressures. If the 1.3437 low gives way as well, the price could dive towards the 50% Fibonacci of 1.3360 and the support trendline, which connects the lows from July and December 2023 seen at 1.3300. Another move lower could shift the spotlight the 1.3200-1.3225 constraining zone.

If there is some bullish action on the other hand, there could be an initial retest of the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.3560, which has been a barrier for bullish activity earlier this week. Then, strong buying will be necessary for the pair to overcome the 1.3585 region, the flattening 200-day SMA, and ultimately reach the 38.2% Fibonacci mark of 1.3650. Even higher, a tougher battle could take place between 1.3700 and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.3763.

In brief, USDCAD is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the US and Canadian jobs data. A sustainable decline below 1.3480 could heighten negative risks.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

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