US Super Tuesday Presidential Primaries March 3rd: It’s all about the delegates

• Fourteen states vote in the largest and most important US primary day.
• Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders leads in national polls, but the convention is not until July.
• Markets focusing on Coronavirus, unlikely to pay much attention to the results.

For the Democratic candidates competing to face President Trump in November Tuesday’s primaries are all about delegates.  

By the time all the votes are counted on Wednesday morning will one candidate have such a lead so that no other can plausibly catch up through the remaining primaries?  Or will the results be so fragmented that the Democratic Party establishment which fears a Sanders nomination can set its sights on a brokered convention? Right now Bernie Sanders, the self-declared democratic socialist Vermont Senator, appears to be the man to beat.

There are 3,979 total pledged delegates to the Democratic Convention on July 13-16 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, with 1,991 needed for the nomination on the first ballot.  The primaries and caucuses are proportional, each candidate receives delegates in line with the percentage won in the voting but the procedures are somewhat complex.

In each state contest, about 35% of the delegates are awarded statewide with the rest divided between the state’s congressional districts.  A candidate must receive at least 15% of the vote to qualify for any delegates.  If none meet the bar the qualifying threshold becomes half the percentage of the top vote-getter. If only one candidate meets the threshold it becomes "the winner takes all."

In the first ballot for the nomination only pledged delegates vote. If no candidate wins a majority on that first election then the 771 so-called super delegates join the voting, bringing the total to 4,750 and a majority of 2,376.

These delegates are Democratic Party officials and leaders and are unpledged, that is, they can vote for any candidate.  If the first ballot results are close but without the 1,991 majority these unelected delegates, 445 national committee members, 280 members of Congress, 24 governors and 22 other party leaders could easily give the nomination to the second or even third-place primary finisher.

So far only three states have voted and the delegate count is Sanders 45, Buttigieg 26, Biden 15, Warren 8, and Klobuchar 7.  None of the other three remaining candidates, Steyer, Gabbard, or Bloomberg have won any delegates.

Fourteen states have primaries on Tuesday March 3^rd including the two largest California and Texas, with 1,357 delegate up for grabs.

The list is lengthy so we will mention the state, the number of delegates, the most recent polling and any special circumstances.

Vermont—16 Delegates

Bernie Sanders is one of the state's two senators. He is very popular there winning the 2016 primary with 86% and leads this year by 38% in one poll from Vermont Public Radio conducted about two weeks ago.

Maine—24 delegates

A Northeast state like Vermont Sanders leads by 9 points, 24% to 16% for Buttigieg, 14% for Bloomberg and 12% for Biden in one Colby College poll earlier in February.

Arkansas—31 delegates

Home state of Bill Clinton who has a very low profile in this election. He was the only Democrat to win the state in the national election in 40 years.  Bloomberg leads by 1 point at 20%, trailed by Biden at 19% and Sanders and Buttigieg tied at 16% in a Talk Business/Hendrix College poll.

Utah—29 delegates

Sanders won handily here in 2016 though no candidate who has won the primary here has gone on to win the nomination since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  Sanders leads by 13 points, 27% over Warren at 14%, Biden at 12% and Bloomberg at 10% in a Salt Lake Tribune poll.

Alabama—52 delegates

The state has a large African-American population and Biden’s popularity as Obama’s vice-president shows.  Biden is forecast to win with 34% of the vote, Bloomberg 21%, Sanders 20% and Warren 8% by fivethirtyeight.com.

Oklahoma—37 delegates

The polling is close but the oil industry and fracking are major employers and Sanders and Warren have proposed banning the latter.  The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of two polls has Bloomberg leading by 3.5% at 20% followed by Biden 16.5%, Sanders 13.5%, Buttigieg 10.5% and Warren at 8.5%.

Tennessee—64 Delegates

Biden is expected to win with 28%, Sanders 23%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 11% and Buttigieg 8% by fivethirtyeight.com.

Colorado—67 delegates

Colorado is a state that has trended Democratic over the past decade with currently one Republican and one Democratic Senator. Sanders leads in the RCP average by 13 points, 30.5% to 17.5% for Warren, 13% for Buttigieg, 12.5% for Bloomberg and 10.5% for Biden.

Minnesota—75 delegates

Home state for Amy Klobuchar where she is popular but if she wins it will likely be her only victory.  She leads by 6% in the RCP average at 28%, then Sanders at 22%, Warren at 13.5%, Biden at 8.5% and Bloomberg with 6%.

Massachusetts—91 delegates

Elizabeth Warren is the state’s senior senator but both fivethirtyeight.com and RCP have her behind Sanders.  At fivethirtyeight.com Sanders leads with 25%, Warren has 20%, Biden 16%, Buttigieg and Bloomberg are tied at 13%. RealClearPolitics lists one poll from the University of Massachusetts with Sanders at 21%, Warren at 20%, Buttigieg 15%, Biden 14% and Bloomberg 12%. 

If Warren does not win her home state it is hard to find the logic in her continuing in the race except perhaps to be someone's vice-president. 

Virginia—99 delegates

The state has a large suburban vote tied to Federal government employment in Washington, D.C.  Sanders leads the RCP average  by 5.5% at 25%, with Bloomberg following at 19.5%, Biden at 18.5%, Buttigieg at 11.5% and Warren at 11%.  

North Carolina—110 delegates

North Carolina has both a large suburban and a large African-American vote.  Sanders leads the RCP average by 1.3% at 21% trailed by Biden at 19.7%, Bloomberg with 18.7%, Warren at 11% and Buttigieg at 7.3%.  

Texas—228 delegates

Texas is reliable Republican territory with a governor and two senators from the party but a number of the larger cities are Democratic and provide almost all the vote in the state. The RCP average has a close race between Sanders and Biden with the Vermont senator leading by 1.6% at 22.3%, Biden at 20.7%, Warren 15.3%, Bloomberg 13.3% and Buttigieg 8.3%.

California—415 delegates

America’s most populous state and with 30% of the day’s delegates one that could give Sanders a huge boost if he does well.  Sanders leads comfortably in the RCP average at 13 points at 28.3% over Warren at 15.3%, Biden 14%, Buttigieg 10.7% and Bloomberg 10.3%. This the first Super Tuesday event for California.

South Carolina—54 delegates

The South Carolina primary is on Saturday February 29^th.  Biden leads in the RCP average by 12.6 points over Sanders at 34.4% to 21.8%. The rest are far behind with Steyer at 13.8%, and Buttigieg and Warren at 8.2%.  Victory here is a necessity for the Biden campaign after dismal finishes in the three previous contests.

Conclusion

Markets are not going to pay much attention to the Tuesday results. The nomination is five months away and the Coronavirus has the full attention of traders everywhere.

Whatever the results of the voting on Tuesday the contention between Sanders and the Democratic National Committee is going to remain lively all the way to the convention in July. Sanders has argued that whoever receives the most delegates through the primaries, even if short of the 1,991 majority, should get the nomination.

Congressional Democrats and the party professionals who make up the 771 super delegates will likely insist that the rules installed to answer Sander’s own complaints about bias against him in 2016, restricting super delegate voting to the second ballot, should be followed.  

The issue for the professionals is that if the super delegates are used to take the nomination from Sanders, his supporters, who the party badly needs to come out and vote in the general election, might choose to stay home in large numbers.  A contested convention with the guaranteed public disputes will also play badly in the House and Senate swing districts particularly where new Democratic incumbents are facing strong opposition from Republicans.  

It is going to be a long road for the Democrats to the nomination.