• US BLS will release the September CPI figures on October 13.
  • Markets expect core inflation to rise 0.5% on a monthly basis in September.
  • Markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a 75 basis points Fed rate hike next month.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for September on Thursday, October 13. Although the Fed uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data as its preferred gauge of inflation, market participants are likely to react more significantly to the CPI data simply because it's published two weeks before the PCE. Additionally, the CPI is widely seen as a better measure of what consumers observe with regard to changes in prices.

Investors expect the headline annual CPI to decline to 8.1% from 8.3% in August. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen edging higher to 6.5% from 6.3% in the same period. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the Core CPI are expected to arrive at 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Since the monthly figures are not distorted by the base effects, they are likely to paint a more accurate picture of core inflation.

Previous Core CPI (MoM) releases 

It's worth noting that the September jobs report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose at a stronger pace than expected in September and that the Unemployment Rate declined to 3.5% from 3.7%, allowing the Fed to stay focused on battling inflation. 

Market implications

When the data for August showed that the Core CPI rose by 0.6%, compared to the market expectation of 0.3%, the probability of a 75 basis points rate hike in September rose sharply and the US Dollar Index (DXY) gained 1.5% on a daily basis.

Currently, the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a nearly-80% probability of one more 75 bps rate hike in November. Hence, the dollar's potential gains on a stronger-than-expected monthly core CPI reading are likely to remain limited. Also, following August's surprise, investors seem to have already prepared for a strong inflation report by forecasting a 0.6% monthly increase. At this point, only a monthly increase of between 0.8% and 1% in Core CPI could be significant enough for market participants to start considering the possibility of a 100 bps rate hike in November and trigger a fresh rally in the US Dollar Index.

Source: CME Group

On the other hand, a soft inflation report with the monthly Core CPI coming in much lower than analysts' estimate, between 0.2% and 0.4%, could open the door for a risk rally. In that case, Wall Street's main indexes could post impressive gains and the USD is likely to suffer heavy losses against its major rivals in the short term.

Nevertheless, unless there is a negative Core CPI print, investors are unlikely to scale back 75 bps hike bets, helping the dollar hold its ground after the initial reaction. FOMC policymakers made it clear that they will not overreact to one-off inflation data and that they will stay on the tightening path until they are convinced inflation is falling steadily. 

Finally, in case CPI figures come in largely in line with analysts' projections, the DXY is likely to return to pre-release levels once the dust settles following the knee-jerk market reaction.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.

Gold News
Geopolitics back on the radar

Geopolitics back on the radar

Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.

Read more
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures