US push for deals with Iran and Russia

European markets are enjoying a continuation of the positive theme seen earlier in the week, with the DAX and FTSE 100 leading the way today. This comes in the wake of comments from Donald Trump that he is 'looking at something' to help car companies with tariffs. This serves to double down on the weekend narrative that Trump will reverse some of his tariffs once company execs approach him to highlight the huge negative implications of his actions. If therefore comes as no surprise to see the likes of Aston Marton Lagonda, BMW, and Volkswagen heading up the gainers in early trade today.

The UK jobs report provided lower-than-expected metrics across both claimant count (18.7k) and average earnings (5.6%) this morning. Coming ahead of tomorrow’s UK inflation report, we have seen the pound strengthen to bring EURUSD into a six-month high today.

US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff has been busy trying to make deals in Iran and Russia over recent days, and there appears to be some progress being made on both sides. On the Iranian issue, Witkoff’s claim that the US are seeking a deal that keeps Iranian uranium enrichment below 3.67% highlights a shift from the aim to completely denuclearise the Middle East nation. Meanwhile, Witkoff’s marathon 5 hour talks with Putin also appear to have made some headway on finding a lasting peace solution with Ukraine, although it makes sense to be cautious given previous signs that Russia seeks to prolong talks without ending the conflict. Crucially both the Iran and Russia issues play out along the same theme which is that a deal could see any sanctions removed and energy production increased. With WTI recently falling into a four-year low below $56, there is clearly a desire for Trump to maintain pressure on oil in a bid to limit inflation pressures.