ING Global Economics Team
ING Economic and Financial Analysis
The next president of the United States and the parties that will control Congress will have a major say in where financial markets head over the coming years. So, just what might happen to FX, Rates, Commodities, and Credit Markets whoever wins? Welcome to our scenarios.
US election: Three scenarios for markets
No one can predict what's going to happen on 5 November when Americans go to the polls to elect either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. However, we have tried to look at various scenarios which could affect asset classes via domestic, foreign and trade policy. We'll be writing extensively on this over the coming weeks. So think of this as an introduction. Our emphasis is very much on the factors that could shape the future, rather than the point forecasts themselves.
US election: Three scenarios for financial markets
Source: ING
Scenario 1: Trump clean sweep
Donald Trump wins the Presidency and Republicans win control in Congress.
Source: ING
Scenario 1: The winners and losers in financial markets
Source: ING
Scenario 2: Trump constrained
Donald Trump wins the Presidency, but Congress split (Democrats win Senate, Republicans win House).
Source: ING
Scenario 2: The winners and losers in financial markets
Source: ING
Scenario 3: President Harris
Kamala Harris wins the Presidency, but Congress is split (Democrats win Senate, Republicans win House).
Source: ING
Scenario 3: The winners and losers in financial markets
Source: ING
Read the original analysis: US presidential election: Three scenarios for markets
Content disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more here: https://think.ing.com/content-disclaimer/
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hovers above 1.1000 ahead of US Retail Sales data
EUR/USD consolidates above 1.1000, within a familiar range in European trading on Thursday. A positive risk tone and a pause in the US Dollar recovery underpin the pair but the upside remains capped, as traders turn cautious ahead of the key US Retail Sales data.
GBP/USD clings to gains near 1.2850 after UK data
GBP/USD trades with moderate gains near 1.2850 in the European session on Thursday. The data from the UK showed that the GDP expanded at an annual rate of 0.9% in Q2 as expected, helping Pound Sterling stay resilient against its peers. US data is next in focus.
Gold price rises above $2,450 on growing expectations of Fed rate cut in September
Gold price gains above $2,450 as traders widely anticipated the Fed will begin reducing interest rates from September. The US CPI data for July boosted confidence that price pressures will return to the desired rate of 2%.
AAVE price eyes for rally after retest of support level
Aave (AAVE) price trades slightly higher during the Asian trading session on Thursday after surging on Wednesday. On-chain data shows that open interest, daily active addresses and development activity are rising, signaling a bullish trend.
Fed rate cut in September? The data will decide
The US economy is currently navigating a period of slowing growth, persistent inflation, and a tight labour market. The Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening over the past year has started to show results in moderating inflation