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US presidential election: Three scenarios for markets

ING Global Economics Team ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The next president of the United States and the parties that will control Congress will have a major say in where financial markets head over the coming years. So, just what might happen to FX, Rates, Commodities, and Credit Markets whoever wins? Welcome to our scenarios.

US election: Three scenarios for markets

No one can predict what's going to happen on 5 November when Americans go to the polls to elect either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. However, we have tried to look at various scenarios which could affect asset classes via domestic, foreign and trade policy. We'll be writing extensively on this over the coming weeks. So think of this as an introduction. Our emphasis is very much on the factors that could shape the future, rather than the point forecasts themselves.

US election: Three scenarios for financial markets

Source: ING

Scenario 1: Trump clean sweep

Donald Trump wins the Presidency and Republicans win control in Congress.

Source: ING

Scenario 1: The winners and losers in financial markets

Source: ING

Scenario 2: Trump constrained

Donald Trump wins the Presidency, but Congress split (Democrats win Senate, Republicans win House).

Source: ING

Scenario 2: The winners and losers in financial markets

Source: ING

Scenario 3: President Harris

Kamala Harris wins the Presidency, but Congress is split (Democrats win Senate, Republicans win House).

Source: ING

Scenario 3: The winners and losers in financial markets

Source: ING

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ING Global Economics Team

ING Economic and Financial Analysis

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