The world's biggest political event of the year, the 60th presidential election in the history of the United States, will take place on 5 November 2024. The leading candidates are incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat) and former President Donald Trump (Republican). The purpose of the popular vote is to appoint the college of 538 electors who will actually elect the future President, who is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 January 2025. The election promises to be particularly closely contested. Kamala Harris' entry into the race in July created positive momentum for the Democratic Party, before Donald Trump's support picked up again, increasing his likelihood of winning at the end of the campaign. Voters will also decide on the composition of Congress (with all seats in the House of Representatives up for election, as well as a third of Senate seats). This will have major implications for the new President's ability to implement his or her policies.
While societal issues are at the forefront of public debate, economic issues are equally crucial. On the one hand, the election will have potentially major consequences for the trajectory of US public finances. Secondly, the choice of Jerome Powell's eventual successor as Fed Chairman in 2026 could be part of a wider questioning of the central bank's mandate. Finally, the broadly interconnected directions of industrial, environmental and tariffs policies will hinge on who wins the election, as will their consequences for the rest of the world and, in particular, for the European Union.
Perceptions of the outgoing administration's economic record will also play a role. The election is taking place against a specific backdrop, with a significant gap between the subdued sentiment of economic agents and the country's positive macroeconomic performance. In August 2024, 44% of Americans cited an economic issue when asked about "the Nation’s most important problem" (Chart 1). This figure has risen sharply since January 2021, when Joe Biden became President. At that time, the figure was 9%, the lowest since 1968.
This article aims to highlight the underlying and potentially decisive economic issues at stake in the US presidential election. We will begin with an overview of the macroeconomic situation in the United States, before looking at the impact of the elections for Congress on the future President's room for manoeuvre. We will then look at the economic policies (industrial, trade and environmental) that have an impact on the United States' attractiveness, but also, and perhaps above all, the repercussions on foreign economic relations. Finally, we will look at the challenges of the policy mix, with its deteriorating budgetary situation and the threats to the independence of its monetary policy.
BNP Paribas is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of its designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No BNP Paribas Group Company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report constitute our judgements as of the date of this report. BNP Paribas and their affiliates ("collectively "BNP Paribas") may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of the issuers mentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in the issuers mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in their securities, and or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. BNP Paribas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any issuer mentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any issuer referred to in this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. BNP Paribas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an issuer mentioned in this report. Any issuer mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy. This report was produced by a BNP Paribas Group Company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Analyst Certification Each analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report, and (ii) no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. United States: This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is not registered as a US broker-dealer, to US major institutional investors only. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-US affiliate only when distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp. United Kingdom: This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas London Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas London Branch is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its designated investment business in the United Kingdom and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. This report is prepared for professional investors and is not intended for Private Customers in the United Kingdom as defined in FSA rules and should not be passed on to any such persons. Japan: This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas not registered as a financial instruments firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions permitted by regulation. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a financial instruments firm registered according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japan affiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch. Hong Kong: This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is regulated as a Licensed Bank by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and is deemed as a Registered Institution by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of Advising on Securities [Regulated Activity Type 4] under the Securities and Futures Ordinance Transitional Arrangements. Singapore: This report is being distributed in Singapore by BNP Paribas Singapore Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Singapore is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore is exempted from holding the required licenses to conduct regulated activities and provide financial advisory services under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisors Act. © BNP Paribas (2011). All rights reserved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds higher ground near 0.6600 after strong China's Caixin Services PMI
AUD/USD holds higher ground near the 0.6600 mark early Tuesday. Strong China's Caixin Services PMI data for October underpins the Aussie amid a modest US Dollar uptick and a tepid risk tone. Traders remain reluctant ahead of the RBA policy decision and the US presidential election.
USD/JPY rises toward 152.50, despite strong Japan's PMI, cautious mood
USD/JPY has picked up fresh bids to test 152.50 in Asian trading on Tuesday, tracking the renewed US Dollar strength. The pair shrugs off strong Japanese PMI data and a cautious market mood. Traders remain wary as Americans head to polls this Tuesday.
Gold price hangs near one-week low; downside seems cushioned ahead of the US election
Gold price remains close to a one-week low set on Monday, though the downside seems limited amid safe-haven demand stemming from the US election uncertainty and talks of an Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel.
RBA widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
Australia’s benchmark interest rate is set to stay unchanged at 4.35% in November. The focus remains on Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock’s comments and updated economic forecasts. The Australian Dollar could wilt if RBA Governor Bullock ramps up bets for a December rate cut.
US presidential election outcome: What could it mean for the US Dollar? Premium
The US Dollar has regained lost momentum against its six major rivals at the beginning of the final quarter of 2024, as tensions mount ahead of the highly anticipated United States Presidential election due on November 5.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.