NonFarm Payrolls


Nonfarm Payrolls rebound in November with an increase of more than 200,000

US jobs report post-release checklist – December 6

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Positive US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 227,000 in November, more than the 200,000 expected and rebounding sharply from the 36,000 increase registered the prior month.
NFP Revisions Positive Estimates for September and October were both upwardly revised, with the number of employed people being 56,000 higher than previously reported.
Unemployment rate Neutral The US Unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in November from 4.1% in October, as expected by economists.
Labor Force Participation Rate Neutral The labor force participation rate was broadly unchanged at 62.5%.
Average Hourly Earnings Positive Wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, came higher than expected at 0.4% on month and 4% on year in November, matching October’s increases.

 

US jobs report pre-release checklist – December 6

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls  NegativeNonfarm Payrolls increased by a meager 12,000 in October, missing estimates of a 113,000 rise and sharply down from the 223,000 jobs created in September. 
Challenger Job Cuts  NegativeUS-based employers announced 57,727 job cuts in November, a 3.8% increase from those announced in October, and up 27% from the 45,510 cuts announced in the same month in 2023.
Initial Jobless Claims   PositiveThe number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time came in at 218,250 (four-week average until November 29), down from thre 236,500 four-week average seen at the end of October. 
Continuing Jobless Claims   NeutralContinuing claims fell to 1.871 million in the week ending November 22, but the recent broad increase in the measure poses upside risk to the unemployment rate.
ISM Services PMI Negative
The headline ISM Services PMI fell by more than expected in November, indicating only a slight expansion in the sector. The Employment subindex also fell, signaling that job gains slowed over the month.
ISM Manufacturing PMI        NeutralThe headline ISM Manufacturing PMI came in above expectations but remained in contraction territory. Similarly, the Employment subcomponent continued to signal that on average employers shed jobs, albeit to a lesser extent compared to October.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index  NeutralThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was little changed in November, with data showing divergent views between Republican and Democrat voters after the US election result.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index  PositiveThe Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in November driven by more positive consumer assessments of the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years.
ADP Employment Report  NeutralPrivate-sector employment rose by 233,000 in October, well above the 115,000 increase expected and accelerating from the previous month.
JOLTS Job Openings  NeutralJOLTS Job Openings rose more than expected to 7.7 million in October. Still, the data is backward looking as it refers to October and the NFP data is for November.

 

October US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


SEPTEMBER US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


July US JOBS REPORT REVIEW




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BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.