US inflation expectations are encouraging, focus shifts to CPI [Video]

The week started on a positive note on this side of the Atlantic Ocean, and on a mixed note on the American side. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Michelle Bowman said that the rates are in a good place to keep pressure on inflation and that there is no need to ease rates soon. Likewise, Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin said that they are ‘closing in on inflation’ but that they ‘are not there just yet’.

This being said, the New York Fed’s latest inflation survey came with a good surprise: the 3-year inflation expectations fell to the lowest level on record, to 2.35%. And inflation in the US is expected to ease below 3% in January. Data in line with the expectations, or ideally softer than the expectations, could further fuel the equity rally.

Elsewhere, American crude consolidates gains above $77pb and is preparing to test the 200-DMA to the upside. Trend and momentum indicators are supportive of a move above this level. Aramco says it sees robust global oil demand this year, OPEC and IEA will release their own predictions today and Thursday respectively. But the higher the oil, the higher the risk of inflation. The higher the risk of inflation, the lower the rate cut prospects & the higher the slowdown odds. So China’d better succeed with its stimulus plan to keep oil bulls envious into the $80pb level.