Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
The week started on a cautious note in Europe and the US as today’s US presidential election looks very close to call and could eventually result in a tight – and even a contested outcome. As such, the major risk today is not a Harris or a Trump win, but it’s the reality that a Harris win could be heavily contested by Mr, Trump and lead to violence and chaos, and more uncertainty than necessary and hit sentiment.
But apart from that, the fact that Trump and Harris have different economic and political agendas, different priorities and the fact that there are sectors that could see a better lift under one or the other presidency may not change the overall performance of the long-term stock market, and not even the concerned sectors...
Did you know that clean energy outperformed traditional energies by 43% under Trump’s presidency? And, wait, traditional energies outpaced clean energies by 53% per year under the Biden presidency.
And zooming out, a quick glance to the S&P500’s performance a year following a US election has always been positive since 1984, no matter if the US was led by a Republican or a Democrat, except in 2000’s tech bubble.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.