The US election will be front and center on this Tuesday. We suspect there will be a good deal of volatility around the updates leading to the result. As things stand, a Trump win would likely translate to more broad based US Dollar demand given policies of tariffs and tax cuts.
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EUR/USD trades sideways below 1.0450 amid quiet markets
EUR/USD defends gains below 1.0450 in European trading on Monday. Thin trading heading into the Xmas holiday and a modest US Dollar rebound leaves the pair in a familair range. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde's comments fail to impress the Euro.
GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.2600 after UK Q3 GDP revision
GBP/USD trades on the defensive below 1.2600 in the European session on Monday. The pair holds lower ground following the downward revision to the third-quarter UK GDP data, which weighs negatively on the Pound Sterling amid a broad US Dollar uptick.
Gold price sticks to modest gains; upside seems limited amid USD dip-buying
Gold price attracts some follow-through buying at the start of a new week and looks to build on its recovery from a one-month low touched last Thursday. Geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, along with trade war fears, turn out to be key factors benefiting the safe-haven precious metal.
Let’s focus on the good for a few more days
Last week was chaotic. The Fed’s hawkish 25bp cut, the hint from the dot plot that there would be only two rate cuts next year instead of four – because the US economy is too strong to continue the cuts as previously predicted - and the US debt limit shenanigans even before Trump took office gave a negative jolt to the US stock markets.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
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