Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
US Dollar Index
The dollar index is standing at the back foot on Tuesday morning, extending pullback from last week’s recovery high (150.87), with slower pace expected ahead of key release – US inflation report, due later today.
Daily studies weakened as the price eventually broke into rising and thick daily cloud and negative momentum is rising, marking a negative signal and keeping the downside vulnerable, while near-term action stays capped by daily cloud top (105.35) reinforced by daily Kijun-sen.
Initial support lays at 105.18 (Fibo 23.6% of 99.20/107.03 rally) guarding more significant Nov 6 low (104.66) violation of which would risk deeper pullback and expose key supports at 104.00 zone (Fibo 38.2% . 100DMA).
Larger picture, however, remains dollar favored as the greenback enjoys support from the US rates being higher than most of major central banks (except (BoE) and recent renewed hawkishness in Fed’s view of monetary policy, suggesting that the US central bank would keep high rates for some time.
US inflation report will be closely watched for fresh signals, with expectations that CPI will ease to 3.3% in Oct from 3.7% last month, but core CPI which excludes volatile food and energy components is expected to stay unchanged at 4.1% y/y, which could be seen as discouraging for those who expect rate cuts in the near future.
Res: 105.54; 105.81; 106.31; 106.67.
Sup: 105.32; 105.18; 104.66; 104.32.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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