Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
Representatives of both the ECB and the US Fed have recently emphasized the risks to the economy and thus fueled market expectations for monetary easing. However, the Fed's statements had more weight for the markets and the dollar weakened somewhat. All in all, however, the market remains directionless. We prefer the dollar in the coming months.
In June, the yen fluctuated against the euro in a stable range between 121 and 123. At its meeting at the end of June, the Japanese central bank made no changes to its loose monetary policy orientation in order to raise inflation towards 2% as soon as possible.
Due to the recent political developments in the United Kingdom, we expect a hard brexit at the end of October. This should increase the firming pressure of the Swiss franc in Q4 2019. We therefore expect the EURCHF exchange rate to reach a level of around 1.10 at the end of Q3 2019.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
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