UK retail sales confirms Cable confidence

Stuart Cowell HFM

USDGBP, Daily

UK April retail sales exceed expectations, rising 2.3% m/m after a 1.4% n/n contraction in the previous month (revised up from a -1.8% m/m original figure). The median forecast had been for a much more moderate 1.0% m/m increase. The y/y figure rose 4.0%, up from 2.0% y/y in March (also revised higher, from 1.7%). The stellar data was pinned on warmer weather and the disturbance to seasonal adjustments caused by the late timing of the Easter break this year relative to last year. The rolling three-month figure showed sales rising in a more restrained manner, by 0.3%. The strong monthly data was nonetheless a bullish cue in forex markets, prompting a rally in sterling, which is presently showing an average 0.5% advance against the G3 currencies.

USDGBP, as I have suggested a number of times already this week, is in confident mood. The key Golden Cross on Monday (May 15) continues to be confirmed and the spike through my pending order at 1.2984 was filled on the Retail Sales news. Target 1 is a little over the 14 DATR at 1.3080, with target 2 at the seemingly heady 1.3162 and the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level of the post Brexit cable collapse.

Author

Stuart Cowell

HFM

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, c

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.