UK Q3 GDP, unemployment, German ZEW, Persimmon, JD wetherspoon, disney, ITV

1) UK Q3 GDP – 12/11 – the Q2 contraction of -19.8% seen in the UK economy was characterised by a collapse in private consumption of -23.6%. This week's rebound in economic activity in Q3 is likely to be characterised by a similarly sharp rebound of 15.7%, however it won't reverse all of the damage done in Q2. With the increase in restrictions seen through October, and the partial lockdown of the economy into November, the damage seen in Q4 is likely to eat into the recovery seen in Q3, which means the numbers this week are likely to be seen through the prism of being in the rear-view mirror, and old news. That doesn't mean the numbers should be considered meaningless. A good number will still be welcome, with the hope that the rebound is strong enough as to mitigate some of the economic losses we are set to see in the next couple of months, as new lockdown measures bite into Q4 economi activity.

2) UK Unemployment/wages – 10/11 – in the most recent set of unemployment numbers we started to see the beginnings of the effects of a nudge higher in the ILO unemployment rate, which tends to lag behind when it comes to the real levels of joblessness. In the three months to September this saw a sharp jump from 4.1% to 4.5%, as more employers decided to squeeze down on costs as it became apparent that there would be no V-shaped recovery from this crisis. With furlough helping to disguise the rise in unemployment levels initially, the extension this week until March next year is likely to have come too late for a lot of people in vulnerable jobs, given that a lot of employers have already started to cut back on their head count, and this week's latest jobless numbers are expected to reflect that further, with another increase. The monthly jobless claims total has already seen a rise to 7.6%, a level which is likely to more accurately reflect where the UK jobs market currently is at the moment.

3) China Trade (Oct) 07/11 – The most recent China trade data for September showed a big improvement in both export and import data suggesting that after a tentative summer, the Chinese economy is finally getting up off the canvas. The September export data showed an increase of 9.9% in September, with strong demand for medical PPE once again boosting the numbers. What had been more concerning, and had been for some time, was the weakness being seen in the imports data, and which until August had been showing little sign of a significant pickup. This appears to have finally changed as imports for September surged to their best levels this year, rising 13.2%. This rise was only the second positive reading this year, and was the biggest rise since the end of last year when imports rose 16.3%, as automakers and large manufacturers started to return to normal levels of production. As we look ahead to the latest October numbers investors will be hoping that this trend has continued, which recent PMI data appears to suggest has been the case. Imports are expected to slip back a touch to 8.6%, with exports remaining steady at 9.2%.

4) German ZEW (Nov) 10/11 – the latest German ZEW survey is expected to paint a much more negative picture than was the case in October. Then, we saw a sharp fall from the twenty-year peak of 77.4 that we saw in September, with a fall to a 5-month low of 56.1. This optimism was based on the mistaken premise that we'd somehow avoid a second wave as well as another wave of lockdowns. This turned out to be somewhat premature and could well see further sharp falls in this week's November numbers, with an estimate of 40 being predicted, now that we know that the German economy will be subject to further restrictions, along with the rest of Europe, until the beginning of next month.

5) Persimmon Q3 20 – 10/11 – with construction companies more or less back to normal working, albeit with slightly higher costs, due to additional safeguarding requirements the road back to the levels last seen in February has proved somewhat elusive. Even the restoration of a small dividend hasn't been enough to reawaken enthusiasm in a sector that has seen prices in some parts of the country see a significant uplift in demand. In their most recent numbers, which saw the business temporarily close in April, profits fell to £292.4m from £509.3m a year earlier. Revenue also fell by 32% to £1.19bn, however in terms of their forward guidance the picture was more encouraging. Average selling prices were higher at £225,050, while the order increased by 15% on the year to £1.86bn. Management also announced a small interim dividend of 40p a share, a welcome bonus for shareholders who had seen the dividend axed from last year's 125p, when the March lockdowns were announced.

6) JD Wetherspoon Q1 21 – 11/11 – the hospitality sector has been one of the sectors hardest hit by the various shutdowns and restrictions that have been imposed by respective governments across Europe. Pubs, which have gone to great lengths to reopen safely saw a significant increase in costs, as they sought to limit numbers, as well as migrate over to a new model that placed a great emphasis on sitting down and eating food. In October the pub chain posted full year pre-tax losses of £34.1m, a sharp reversal from the £102.5m profit. While "Eat out to Help Out" may have mitigated some of the damage in Q1, the recent restrictions to limit closing times to 10pm will also have hurt margins, and that's even before the announcement of the new November lockdown which will see pubs close again, with some possibly never re-opening. Only last month Wetherspoon announced that they would be cutting 450 jobs from its locations in the various airports around the country. Last week's start of new restrictions suggest they won't be the last.

7) ITV Q3 20 – 12/11 – When ITV reported its H1 numbers in August total advertising revenue for the period saw a decline of 21% to £671m. Broadcast revenue also saw a decline of 17% to £824m, with ITV Studios, normally an outperformer seeing a 17% decline to £630m due to having to pause its production capabilities due to various lockdown measures. Overall, there wasn't that much to cheer even if advertising trends did improve in July and August, notably with respect to travel companies advertising getaways, and car and indoor furnishing companies boosting ad spend. In order to preserve cash, the company pulled its interim dividend while saying it would continue to focus on reducing costs by £60m on a temporary basis, with a view to making around half of those savings permanent. The company also pulled its guidance for the rest of the year. While the return of sport to our screens will have helped boost ITVs advertising revenues in this quarter, and Britbox revenues are likely to see an improvement, it is likely to be an uphill struggle for this terrestrial broadcaster unless advertising revenue shows evidence of a sustained pickup.

8) Vroom Q3 20 – 11/11 – another recent development we've seen in on-line shopping has been the rise of on-line car retailers. Earlier this year Vroom launched an IPO to great fanfare in the belief that consumers would feel compelled to shop for a new or used car on-line, without actually test driving it. We've seen it here in the UK with Cazoo, which is spending lots of money on shirt sponsorship in the Premier League. In their most recent numbers Vroom spun into a ditch after the newly IPO'd business posted a bigger than expected Q2 loss of $63.2m. Q3 guidance was also disappointing with the company estimating an even bigger loss than the one we saw in the last quarter. Having guided lower for Q3, could the company beat lowered expectations? If its sector peer Carvana's recent numbers are any guide there, where we saw revenues beat expectations, then we could be in for an upside surprise. Losses are expected to come in at $0.38c a share.

9) Cisco Systems Q1 21 – 12/11 – stock market reaction to Cisco Systems end of year numbers was a little disappointing after the company painted a rather downbeat outlook for Q1, when they reported back in August. Since then the shares have tracked lower after management said they expected a fall of between 9% and 11% in Q1 earnings from the same period last year. This was unexpected and contrasted to a solid end to Q4 which saw a better than expected end to the year. Management said that they would look to cut $1bn in costs on the back of a reduced outlook for revenues as well as profits for Q1. Profits are expected to come in around $0.70c a share.

10) Palantir Technologies Q3 20 – 12/11 – its set to be the first set of numbers for Palantir Technologies as a listed company in the wake of its recent launch on the US stock market. Palantir is a company that specialises in big data analytics, with the US government being one of its biggest clients with $1.5bn worth of contracts, particularly in respect of defence, and counter terrorism through its service Palantir Gotham. The company has yet to make a profit, like most recent IPO's or direct listings so it's not unique in that, but that hasn't stopped markets assigning a valuation of $22bn to the company. Last year the company lost $579.6m, and hasn't made a profit since it was founded in 2003, while on the revenue front the picture is equally as worrying with annual revenues last year at $740m, and operating expenses which appear to be on the high side, at over $500m. The share price reaction has been somewhat subdued since the shares came out of the blocks which suggests a fair but of caution around this particular company, given its complex ownership structure. Expectations are for a modest profit of about $0.03c a share.

11) Disney Q4 20 – 12/11 – when Disney was gearing up for the launch of Disney+ at the end of last year, they must have had high hopes in respect of eating into the market share of the likes of Netflix and Amazon Prime in the online streaming market. Undercutting on price may have seemed like a no-brainer, and while we've seen a big uptake on the subscriptions front with over 60.5m when the company reported in August it still has some way to go to compete with Netflix in terms of content depth. The decision to charge up to $30 to view its Mulan film may well have been a bit of an own goal as well. Furthermore, its ability to compete has also taken a huge blow in terms of losses at its theme parks and resorts, as a result of the pandemic. The company has already announced the loss of 28k jobs in this area alone at the beginning of October. Losses are expected to come in at $0.72c a share.

12) Beyond Meat Q3 20 – 09/11 – when Beyond Meat reported in Q2 the company saw a 192% rise in retail revenues, on the back of a sharp rise into retail revenues, after lockdowns hit its target market of restaurants and office cafeterias which were shut down. Net revenue rose 69% with losses rising to $10.2m, after the company spent $5.9m in diverting its products towards supermarkets and away from the restaurant sector. This outperformance briefly saw its shares rise to its best levels this year last month, however in the last two weeks the shares have fallen sharply, despite optimism over the launch of new product lines including new Beyond Breakfast sausage links last month. The reality is the market is assigning an $8.5bn valuation on a business that still only turns over less than $500m a year, and has only just recently started to look if it could start to turn a profit.