Alexander Kuptsikevich
FxPro Financial Services Limited
UK consumer inflation was weaker than expected. The annual rate of price increases slowed to 2.8% from 3.0%. It remains well above the local low of 1.7% recorded in September. The latest deceleration is still more of a hope than a signal that inflation is slowing, as the previous reading was the highest since March 2024.
However, the downside surprise may allow the Bank of England to return to cutting interest rates sooner and maintain the pace of quarterly cuts.
The GBP/USD reacted to the weaker-than-expected data by falling around 0.5% to 1.2885 before stabilising around 1.2900. Technically, the Pound is at risk of a correction (at least) after a 7.5% rally from the January lows. In the middle of last week, the GBPUSD stalled near 1.3000, clearly reluctant to cross the psychologically important line without fundamental support and amid accumulated local overheating.
Possible correction targets are 1.2800 and 1.2650. The 200-day moving average and 76.4% retracement level lie around the former. The 50-day average and 61.8% level cross the latter.
Trade Responsibly. CFDs and Spread Betting are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.37% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spread Betting with this provider. The Analysts' opinions are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as a recommendation or trading advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Gold trades near record-high, stays within a touching distance of $3,100
Gold clings to daily gains and trades near the record-high it set above $3,080 earlier in the day. Although the data from the US showed that core PCE inflation rose at a stronger pace than expected in February, it failed to boost the USD.
EUR/USD turns positive above 1.0800
The loss of momentum in the US Dollar allows some recovery in the risk-associated universe on Friday, encouraging EUR/USD to regain the 1.0800 barrier and beyond, or daily tops.
GBP/USD picks up pace and retests 1.2960
GBP/USD now capitalises on the Greenback's knee-jerk and advances to the area of daily peaks in the 1.2960-1.2970 band, helped at the same time by auspicious results from UK Retail Sales.
Donald Trump’s tariff policies set to increase market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment
US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are expected to escalate market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, with the Kobeissi Letter’s post on X this week cautioning that while markets may view the April 2 tariffs as the "end of uncertainty," it anticipates increased volatility.
US: Trump's 'Liberation day' – What to expect?
Trump has so far enacted tariff changes that have lifted the trade-weighted average tariff rate on all US imports by around 5.5-6.0%-points. While re-rerouting of trade will decrease the effectiveness of tariffs over time, the current level is already close to the highest since the second world war.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.