The Pound has sold-off again this morning amid heightened fears over the rout in UK bond markets. While part of the move can be ascribed to the fixed income sell-off globally, the gyrations seen in UK gilts have been extreme, with investors particularly concerned over the outlook for Britain’s economy and the state of public finances.
This is a damning indictment of Labour’s fiscal policies, particularly the hike to employer NI contributions, which businesses have already warned will lead to higher prices and a worsening in labour market conditions.
We see wide ranging repercussions of this bond market sell-off. On the one hand, weak demand for UK debt raises the risk of either government spending cuts or further tax hikes to balance the country’s finances, neither of which would be positive for growth.
Elevated gilt yields are also likely to be reflected in higher mortgage rates, which would provide a further squeeze on household disposable incomes.
These worries have placed a high premium on UK assets, and we would not rule out additional downside for sterling as a result.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD bounces off lows, retests 1.1370
Following an early drop to the vicinity of 1.1310, EUR/USD now manages to regain pace and retargets the 1.1370-1.1380 band on the back of a tepid knee-jerk in the US Dollar, always amid growing optimism over a potential de-escalation in the US-China trade war.
GBP/USD trades slightly on the defensive in the low-1.3300s
GBP/USD remains under a mild selling pressure just above 1.3300 on Friday, despite firmer-than-expected UK Retail Sales. The pair is weighed down by a renewed buying interest in the Greenback, bolstered by fresh headlines suggesting a softening in the rhetoric surrounding the US-China trade conflict.
Gold remains offered below $3,300
Gold reversed Thursday’s rebound and slipped toward the $3,260 area per troy ounce at the end of the week in response to further improvement in the market sentiment, which was in turn underpinned by hopes of positive developments around the US-China trade crisis.
Ethereum: Accumulation addresses grab 1.11 million ETH as bullish momentum rises
Ethereum saw a 1% decline on Friday as sellers dominated exchange activity in the past 24 hours. Despite the recent selling, increased inflows into accumulation addresses and declining net taker volume show a gradual return of bullish momentum.
Week ahead: US GDP, inflation and jobs in focus amid tariff mess – BoJ meets
Barrage of US data to shed light on US economy as tariff war heats up. GDP, PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports to headline the week. Bank of Japan to hold rates but may downgrade growth outlook. Eurozone and Australian CPI also on the agenda, Canadians go to the polls.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.