Trump now holds a relatively healthy advantage according to the latest odds

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

Economic reports out of the US continue to surprise to the upside, although this dynamic is mostly overshadowed by the headlines and polls about the presidential election, which will take place next Tuesday (05/11). Trump now holds a relatively healthy advantage according to the latest odds and predictions models and is ahead in the opinion surveys in five of seven swing stages.

We advise against taking late release polls too seriously, however, and we far from see the election as set in stone, particularly given how inaccurate the polls have been in the recent past.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report continues one of the two most important data points worldwide, the other being US inflation.

The Federal Reserve will be paying very close attention to the wage growth number, given the rebound inflation data we have seen recently. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE index, will also be released on Thursday.”

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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