Trump effect has caused S&P to hit 6K, Dow 44K and now Bitcoin looks to test $100K

Notes/observations

- European equities are up, yields flat and seeing a firmer US dollar as sentiment unchanged from yesterday, with higher chance priced in for Fed rate cut in Dec and momentum maintained in Trump supported assets. Republicans secured House majority, as forecast, with control of Presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

- UK Chancellor Reeves to hold Mansion House speech at 21:00 GMT alongside BOE Gov Bailey, with focus on pension reform, introduction of digital gilts and plans for private stock market in UK.

- Bitcoin trades >$90K after hitting $93.5K as it eyes six-digit handle.

- Fed Chair Powell to take part in a moderated discussion at Dallas Regional Chamber in Dallas from 15:00 ET.

- Notable EU earnings from Deutsche Telekom, Merck, Swiss RE, Siemens, Prosieben, Hapag-Lloyd, Aviva, Burberry; Earnings calendar enters tail end of Q3 season.

- Upcoming US Premarket earnings: NICE, DIS, AAP.

- Asia closed mixed with Hang Seng underperforming -2.0%. EU indices are +0.0-1.4%. US futures are 0.0% to +0.1%. Gold -1.2%, DXY +0.4%; Commodity: Brent -0.1%, WTI -0.1%; Crypto: BTC +4.2%, ETH +1.5%.

Asia

- Australia Oct Employment Change: +15.9K v +25.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 4.1%e.

- Australia Nov Consumer Inflation Expectation Survey: 3.8% v 4.0% prior.

- New Zealand Oct Food Prices M/M: -0.9% v +0.5% prior.

- RBA Gov Bullock believes its policy was restrictive enough.

- Japan govt said to consider FY extra budget of $87.0B (¥13.5T) to fund a stimulus package to help low-income households and offset rising price.

Global conflict/tensions

- Israel said to have informs Trump of intention to speed up Lebanon ceasefire agreement as a 'gift' for Trump.

Europe

- UK Oct RICS House Price Balance: 16% v 11%e (highest since Sept 2022).

- French prosecutors asked that far-right French lawmaker Marine Le Pen be found guilty of embezzlement and misappropriating EU funds and sentenced to five years in prison, which could prevent her 2027 election bid.

- UK Chancellor Reeves expected to reveal plans for 'world’s first' private stock market 'Pisces’. To announce plans to create pension “megafunds” that the Treasury says will unlock as much as £80B worth of investment in ­businesses and infrastructure.

Americas

- US Oct Monthly Budget Statement: -$257.5B v -$225.0Be.

- Fed's Musalem (non-voter in 2024; voter in 2025) noted that growth was broad based and driven by consumption, income growth, productivity, supportive financial conditions, and wealth effects. Expected inflation to converge toward 2% over the medium term.

- Fed's Schmid (non-voter for 2024; voter for 2025; hawk): Won't let enthusiasm over rising productivity get ahead of data or commitment to reaching Fed's goals.

- More projections showing Republicans to have at least the 218 votes needed to control the 435-seat House of Representatives.

Energy

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -0.8M v +3.1M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.48% at 504.00, FTSE +0.05% at 8,034.43, DAX +1.21% at 19,206.65, CAC-40 +0.72% at 7,268.45, IBEX-35 +0.24% at 11,404.00, FTSE MIB +0.62% at 33,918.00, SMI -0.14% at 11,672.57, S&P 500 Futures +0.04%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open mixed, but later took on a decidedly positive bias with DAX outperforming other indices after Siemens results; among sectors pulling to the upside are technology and energy; materials and financial sectors lagging; focus on US PPI later in the day; Volvo Cars divests a 30% stake in Lynk; ASML affirming long-term targets ahead of Investor Day and helping some US chip names premarket; Siemens trading sharply higher following earnings and FY25 guidance; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Brookfield and NICE.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Burberry Group [BRBY.UK] +15.0% (earnings; new startegy; no comment on Moncler talks), LVMH [MC.FR] +0.5% (new CFO), WH Smith [SMWH.UK] -5.5% (prelim FY results, notes new year started well).

- Energy: SMA Solar Technology [S92.DE] -20.0% (cuts outlook) - Financials: Swiss Life [RUKN.CH] -2.5% (9M results), ABN Amro [ABN.NL] -1.5% (Morgan Stanley cuts to underweight) - Materials: K+S [SDF.DE] -0.5% (Q3 results, adjust guidance) - Industrials: Siemens [SIE.DE] +8.5% (Q4 results, initial FY25 guidance; conf call comments), Hapag-Lloyd [HLAG.DE] +3.5% (9M results), Volvo Cars [VOLVARB.SE] +3.0% (sells 30% stake in Lynk & Co to Zeekr for ~SEK8B) - Technology: ASML [ASML.NL] +4.5% (affirms long-term targets ahead of Investor Day; Foxconn earnings) - Telecom: Deutsche Telekom [DTE.DE] +3.0% (Q3 results, beats estimates).

-Utilities: E.ON [EOAN.DE] -0.5% (earnings).

Speakers

- ECB’s De Guindos (Spain) noted that have seen good news recently on inflation, but not so good regarding economic activity.

-Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Financial Stability Report noted that risks had declined in the short term but large uncertainties abroad.

- Hungary PM Chief of Staff Gulyas stated that the govt aim was to avoid wider swings in HUF currency (Forint).

- Thailand Dep Fin Min stated that the current level of THB currency (Baht) was supporting exports.

-IEA Monthly Oil Report (OMR) trimmed its 2025 global oil demand growth from 998K bpd to 990K bpd (demand seen at 103.8M vs. 103.8M prior) and trimmed the 2025 global oil supply growth from 2.1M bpd to 2.0M bpd (supply seen at 105.0M vs. 105.0M prior).

Currencies/fixed income

- USD continued it post Trump election gains. Dealers continued to cite higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under the incoming Trump administration to fuel inflation higher.

- EUR/USD tested below 1.0520 for its lowest level since Nov 2023.

- GBP/USD slumped to test 1.2650 area for its lowest level since July.

- USD/JPY moved above the 155 level for its highest reading since July.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Oct CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.1 v 0.8% prior.

- (FI) Finland Sept GDP Indicator Y/Y: -1.0% v +2.1% prior.

- (IN) India Oct Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e.

- (SE) Sweden Oct Final CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6% prelim.

- (SE) Sweden Oct Final CPIF M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5% prelim.

- (SE) Sweden Oct Final CPIF (excl energy) M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1% prelim; CPI Level: 415.51 v 414.57 prior.

- (RO) Romania Q3 Advance GDP (1st of 3 readings) Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.7%e.

- (ES) Spain Oct Final CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8% prelim.

- (ES) Spain Oct Final; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8% prelim.

- (ES) Spain Oct CPI Core M/M: +0.4% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y (final): 2.5% v 2.5% prelim.

- (NL) Netherlands Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.8% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Sept Trade Balance: €14.1B v €11.1B prior; Exports Y/Y: +3.0% v -0.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: 59%v 1.4% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Sept Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v 1.5% prior.

- (PL) Poland Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9%e.

- (ZA) South Africa Sept Total Mining Production M/M: +3.8% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 2.1%e; Gold Production Y/Y: -3.7% v -4.6% prior; Platinum Production Y/Y: 6.7% v 4.7% prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Preliminary GDP (2nd of 3 readings) Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4% advance; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9% advance.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Preliminary Employment Q/Q: % v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.8% prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Industrial Production M/M: -2.0% v -1.4%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.0%e.

- (CY) Cyprus Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.7% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR370B vs. INR370B indicated in 2029, 2039 and 2054 in bonds.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK500M vs. SEK500M indicated IL 2030 and 2032 I/L Bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-year, 5-year and 10-year bonds.

- 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 7-day short-term repo operation (STR).

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 1.4%e v 1.3% prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 3.1% prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil CONAB Soybean Production.

- 07:30 (EU) ECB Account of Oct. 16-17 Meeting (Minutes).

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 8th: No est v $632.7B prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct PPI Final Demand M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 1.8% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct PPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.8% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct PPI (ex-food, energy and trade) M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 220Ke v 221K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.87Me v 1.892M prior.

- 09:15 (US) Fed’s Barkin.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.0%e v -1.9% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -1.0%e v -1.8% prior.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.7%e v 5.2% prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-year Bonds.

- 13:30 (DE) ECB’s Schnabel (Germany).

- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Overnight Rate by 25bps to 10.25%.

- 15:00 (US) Fed Gov Powell at event in Dallas.

- 16:00 (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Reeves speech at Mansion House.

- 16:15 (US) Fed's Williams at NY Fed event.

- 16:30 (NZ) New Zealand Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 46.9 prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior; Annualized GDP Q/Q: 0.7%e v 2.9% prior; Nominal GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 1.8% prior; GDP Deflator Y/Y: 2.7%e v 3.2% prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Preliminary Private Consumption Q/Q: 0.2%e v 0.9% prior; Business Spending Q/Q: -0.2%e v +0.8% prior; Inventory Contribution % GDP: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Net Exports Contribution % GDP: +0.1%e v -0.1% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) RBA’s Jones.

- 20:30 (CN) China Oct New Home Prices M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Used Home Prices M/M: No est v -0.9% prior.

- 21:00 (CN) China Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.6%e v 5.4% prior; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 5.7%e v 5.8% prior.

- 21:00 (CN) China Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.8%e v 3.2% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 3.4%e v 3.3% prior.

- 21:00 (CN) China Oct YTD Fixed Urban Assets Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.4% prior.

- 21:00 (CN) China Oct YTD Property Investment Y/Y: -9.9%e v -10.1% prior; Residential Property Sales Y/Y: No est v -24.0% prior.

- 21:00 (CN) China Oct Surveyed Jobless Rate: 5.1%e v 5.1% prior.

- 21:35 (CN) China to sell Special 30-year Bonds.

- 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 5-year JGB Bonds.

- 23:00 (MY) Malaysia Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.8%e v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: 5.3%e v 5.3% advance.

- 23:00 (MY) Malaysia Q3 Current Account (MYR): 3.0Be v 3.0B prior.

- 23:00 (ID) Indonesia Oct Trade Balance: $3.1Be v $3.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: 3.8%e v 6.4% prior; Imports Y/Y: 7.3%e v 8.6% prior.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan Sept Final Industrial Production M/M: No est v 1.4% prelim; Y/Y: No est v -2.8% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: No est v -5.3% prior.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan Sept Tertiary Industry Index M/M: +0.2%e v -1.1% prior.