Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
From a medium-term perspective, the outlook for gold should be strong. With US rates expected to at least pause this year (and STIR markets anticipating rate cuts), the path for the USD and US yields should be lower for the second half of the year. If you look at the relationship between real yields (nominal bond yields minus inflation expectations) and the USD, you will see that when they both move lower, gold is supported. See the chart below.
So, if gold does start finding buyers, where might they step in? Here are three places to look for gold buyers in the near-term and three reference points to note.
The 100EMA
Medium-term buyers may already have stepped in here, and the recent $1930 low may have been a near-term bottom. For buyers, it is an obvious low-risk, high-reward place for stops to be placed.
The $1900 region
Sitting in major daily support, we also have the 200EMA. The last time that gold prices were under the 200EMA was at the end of last year. Any return to this level, marked around the $1900 region, is a long-term support level worthy of noting. Again, stops may potentially be placed very tightly below the $1880 region.
A trend line break
One simple method for seeing a changing trend is to go with the break of a major trend line. Looking at the daily trend line marked, should that break, then stops may potentially be placed on the other side of the trend line. As long as prices stay above the trend line, the bull case is alive. See the chart below.
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