This feels like a here we go again moment

Forex markets

Wow. What a session. I was barely halfway through my second cup of coffee when EURUSD blew through 1.1380 — and yeah, I didn’t wait around. I hit the profit-take at 1.1366 across spot and derivatives. That’s the kind of move that usually takes two sweat-drenched weeks… not two minutes—pure whiplash.

This feels like a Here We Go Again moment — the basis trade disintegrating, gold and euro catching fire, and yields tripping right over Bessent’s red line at 4.45%. If you've been following the story, you already know: this isn’t just volatility — it’s plumbing-level dysfunction. The 30Y swap spreads are back to where they were before Trump’s tariff backpedal on Wednesday, and the Treasury market’s officially lost its safe-haven reflex.

And the dollar? Got smoked. DXY cracked below 100 like a trapdoor — worst single-day drop since November 2022. ( using Asia to Asia clock) This wasn’t some textbook flow — this was a Mar-a-Lago Accord esq guided missile straight at the “strong dollar” narrative. Meanwhile, EUR and JPY are ripping so hard you’d think Europe and Japan were booming… except we both know that export flows are about to hit a brick wall, and central banks over there are gonna be forced to act.

Desk was buzzing with takes like:

“Asia’s unloading Treasuries, loading up on gold.”

“China’s willing to eat capital losses just to get out of USTs.”

That’s not noise. That’s real. The market is losing confidence in the U.S. rate complex — and when the long end loses the bid during a risk-off move, it’s not just a market correction. It’s a narrative fracture.

I’m still skewed short dollar, but with a good chunk of P&L in the bank, I’m letting the price come to me now. No chasing. No FOMO. After a move like this, the smart play is to trade lighter and listen to the tape. Because when the plumbing’s rattling like this, it doesn’t take much for things to snap.

Insane price action, historic reversal, and yeah — this is starting to look a lot less like a correction and more like a macro regime change.

The plumbing’s shot and the pressure’s building

Call it what it is: the U.S. is running a global Ponzi liquidity loop where exporters sell to Americans, take the dollars, and hand them off to portfolio managers desperate for yield. But that yield’s no longer cheap( for the US to pay) , growth no longer effortless, and the dollar no longer invincible. The result? A rickety house of financial pipes clanking under pressure.

You don’t need to be bearish out of ideology—just follow the plumbing. The current account is still bleeding, the NIIP’s a leveraged time bomb, and Treasuries are only attractive as long as “yield tourism” keeps the line moving. If that crowd pulls a U-turn, the dollar doesn’t just wobble—it flushes.

And here’s the kicker: everyone screaming for a weaker dollar to “rebalance global flows” might just get their wish—but not the way they wanted. This isn’t coordinated adjustment. It’s backwash.