Stephen Innes
SPI Asset Management
No surprise here — Asian equities are diving headfirst into the plunge tank, tracking Wall Street’s carnage but not quite tick for tick. Offloading high-beta, high-export exposures across the region isn’t just a reactive move — it’s a live, high-conviction trade. This isn’t some one-day wobble — it’s a coordinated, cross-asset risk dump with real momentum. The message couldn’t be more unmistakable: risk is being slashed without mercy, and the tape’s still bleeding.
The dollar’s taking it on the chin again as FX markets ramp up pricing for a deeper U.S. recession and a forced Fed pivot. The yen comfortably wears its safe-haven crown, catching a steady bid on every tick lower in US equities.
With U.S. exceptionalism losing its lustre fast and 10-year Treasury yields breaking below 4%, the euro is emerging as a major winner in the tariff sweepstakes. Europe still has stimulus on deck, while Washington is busy swinging the fiscal axe. That divergence is no longer just a macro idea — it’s the trade.
High-beta G10s like AUD and NZD are hanging in there for now, but they’re skating on thin ice. Weakening global growth, US recession signals, fading commodities, and broad-based de-risking will eventually drag them down once the next volatility wave hits. This is the FX reversion trade waiting in the wings.
Bottom line: this is still a sell-the-dollar rally tape. Long JPY and EUR remain the cleanest expressions of U.S. economic fragility. As recession risks escalate, so does the fear that global capital pulls back from U.S. assets. Without credible fiscal stimulus or a policy anchor, the dollar’s losing its safe-haven luster — starting to look more like the emperor with no clothes, stripped down and exposed to the macro storm.
SPI Asset Management provides forex, commodities, and global indices analysis, in a timely and accurate fashion on major economic trends, technical analysis, and worldwide events that impact different asset classes and investors.
Our publications are for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
Opinions are the authors — not necessarily SPI Asset Management its officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. Losses can exceed investments.
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EUR/USD regains traction above 1.1000 ahead of US CPI release
EUR/USD has found fresh buyers and jumps above 1.1000 in the European session on Thursday. The pair gains on the German coalition deal and Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, which have lifted risk senitment while exacerbating the US Dollar pain ahead of the US CPI data release.
GBP/USD trades firm above 1.2850, US CPI data awaited
GBP/USD sustains the rebound above 1.2850 in European trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound capitalizes on risk appetite, courtesy of Trump's tariff pause, allowing the pair to recover ground. But further upside hinges on the US CPI data and US-Sino trade updates.
Gold price eases from weekly top amid risk-on mood; still well bid above $3,100 ahead of US CPI
Gold price trims a part of its strong intraday gains to a one-week high touched during the early European session on Thursday and currently trades just above the $3,100 mark. Concerns about escalating US-China trade tensions, along with fears about a tariffs-driven economic slowdown, turn out to be key factors that continue to underpin the safe-haven bullion.
US CPI data set to reveal March inflation dip as markets weigh impact of Trump’s tariffs
As measured by the CPI, inflation in the US is set to rise at an annual pace of 2.6% in March, down slightly from the 2.8% reported in February. Core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to ease to 3% in the same period from a year earlier
Tariff rollercoaster continues as China slapped with 104% levies
The reaction in currencies has not been as predictable. The clear winners so far remain the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc, no surprises there, while the euro has also emerged as a quasi-safe-haven given its high liquid status.
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